中国日报网 | 2024年03月02日 20:29:07 美国杂志《政客》近日援引英国某知名汽车制造商的消息称，英国商业贸易部对中国电动汽车反补贴的“调查之轮已经开始转动” ... 为寻求“自我保护”，部分英国本土汽车制造商一直敦促英国政府展开相关调查。他们担心，若欧盟在今年晚些时候完成对中国电动汽车的反补贴调查，并决定向中国电动汽车增收关税，那么中国的电动汽车将流向英国

Small talk, big price tag. $490 million big. Reuters reports that [Apple is settling a shareholder lawsuit](https://www.reuters.com/legal/apple-reaches-490-million-settlement-with-shareholders-over-china-sales-comments-2024-03-15/) about the company reversing course after some 2018 comments by CEO Tim Cook about sales projections for China. Apple said sales in the country were fine despite worsening conditions in other emerging-market countries. But [it turned out that sales in China were not fine](https://qz.com/india/1514957/apples-iphone-sales-fall-in-china-wistron-looks-to-india). The company said in a note to investors a few months later that in-store traffic was indeed slowing down. “External forces may push us around a bit, but we are not going to use them as an excuse. Nor will we just wait around until they get better,” Cook wrote. “This moment gives us an opportunity to learn and to take action, to focus on our strengths and on Apple’s mission.” The stock price went down by 10% the next day, and investors lost money — $74 billion of the company’s market value vanished in the process. Chinese sales deteriorated amidst [a trade war that then-President Donald Trump started](https://qz.com/1308908/us-tariff-threats-on-200-billion-of-chinese-imports-are-escalating-the-trade-war) with the country, [a strengthening U.S. dollar](https://qz.com/1511247/the-us-dollars-unexpected-strength-stands-out-in-the-market-wreckage-of-2018) that made American exports more expensive abroad, and a cooling Chinese economy — GDP growth was reported at 6.6% in 2018, its [slowest pace in three decades](https://qz.com/1527008/chinas-final-2018-economic-numbers-will-be-shaky). The original complaint, a class-action suit initiated by the retirement fund for city employees of Roseville, California, said that: > Notwithstanding the impact of slowing economic growth in China, geopolitical pressures caused by U.S.-China sales tariffs, and the Company’s ability to compel unnecessary iPhone upgrades on customers, Apple issued a series of materially false and misleading statements in November 2018 concerning demand for iPhones and Apples pricing power for its hardware offerings, including its new iPhones launched in September 2018, in particular in China. The proposed settlement, filed Friday and still awaiting a judge’s approval, suggests that the plaintiffs’ attorneys would have pursued $2.1 billion in damages absent an agreement. Jury selection had been scheduled to begin in September. Apple denied any wrongdoing as part of the settlement, but “nonetheless, Defendants have concluded that after four years of litigation, further litigation will be protracted, overly burdensome, expensive, and distracting.” Hence, the checkbook coming out. Apple stock is up more than 330% since the day that 2019 memo went out.

Donald Trump’s economic advisers are eyeing aggressive new legal justifications to impose tariffs on all imports, seeking to buttress a second-term plan that would reshape the U.S. economy, according to public and private comments by top aides. On the campaign trail, Trump has [repeatedly promised](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/08/22/trump-trade-tariffs/?itid=lk_inline_manual_4) to enact a “ring” around the U.S. economy by enacting a tariff of at least 10 percent on goods imported from any other nation. Trump’s plan would target more than $3 trillion in annual imports and [risks sending inflation soaring](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/01/07/trump-economy-inflation-biden-campaign/?itid=lk_inline_manual_4) in what probably would prove the biggest escalation of trade hostilities in decades, ratcheting up the standoffs that marked his first term.

 **[Jim Tankersley](https://www.nytimes.com/by/jim-tankersley)**, who covers economic policy at the White House for The New York Times. Image Electric cars for export stacked at the international container terminal of Taicang Port in Suzhou, China, in Jiangsu Province.Credit...Agence France-Presse — Getty Images The Daily is made by Rachel Quester, Lynsea Garrison, Clare Toeniskoetter, Paige Cowett, Michael Simon Johnson, Brad Fisher, Chris Wood, Jessica Cheung, Stella Tan, Alexandra Leigh Young, Lisa Chow, Eric Krupke, Marc Georges, Luke Vander Ploeg, M.J. Davis Lin, Dan Powell, Sydney Harper, Mike Benoist, Liz O. Baylen, Asthaa Chaturvedi, Rachelle Bonja, Diana Nguyen, Marion Lozano, Corey Schreppel, Rob Szypko, Elisheba Ittoop, Mooj Zadie, Patricia Willens, Rowan Niemisto, Jody Becker, Rikki Novetsky, John Ketchum, Nina Feldman, Will Reid, Carlos Prieto, Ben Calhoun, Susan Lee, Lexie Diao, Mary Wilson, Alex Stern, Dan Farrell, Sophia Lanman, Shannon Lin, Diane Wong, Devon Taylor, Alyssa Moxley, Summer Thomad, Olivia Natt, Daniel Ramirez and Brendan Klinkenberg. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly. Special thanks to Sam Dolnick, Paula Szuchman, Lisa Tobin, Larissa Anderson, Julia Simon, Sofia Milan, Mahima Chablani, Elizabeth Davis-Moorer, Jeffrey Miranda, Renan Borelli, Maddy Masiello, Isabella Anderson and Nina Lassam.

President Biden has notably decided not to roll back any of the original tariffs that his predecessor imposed on Chinese products.Credit...Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times Former President Donald J. Trump has pledged new efforts to sever trade between the United States and China if he is elected to a second term.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times Joseph R. Biden Jr. ran for the White House as a sharp critic of President Donald J. Trump’s crackdown on trade with China. In office, though, he has taken Mr. Trump’s trade war with Beijing and escalated it, albeit with a very different aim. The two men, locked in a rematch election this fall, [share a rhetorical fondness](https://nytimes.com/2024/04/17/us/politics/biden-trump-china-tariffs.html) for beating up on China’s economic practices, including accusing the Chinese of cheating at global trade. They also share a building-block policy for countering Beijing: hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs, or taxes, on Chinese imports. Those tariffs were first imposed by Mr. Trump and have been maintained by President Biden. On Tuesday, [Mr. Biden will announce](https://nytimes.com/2024/05/14/us/politics/biden-china-tariffs.html) that he is increasing some of those tariffs. That includes quadrupling electric vehicle tariffs to 100 percent, tripling certain levies on steel and aluminum products to 25 percent, and doubling the rate on semiconductors to 50 percent. But Mr. Biden’s trade war differs from Mr. Trump’s in important ways. Mr. Trump was trying to bring back a broad swath of factory jobs outsourced to China. Mr. Biden is seeking to increase production and jobs in a select group of emerging high-tech industries — including clean energy sectors, like electric vehicles, that Mr. Trump shows little interest in cultivating. Mr. Biden has pulled more policy levers, some of them created by Mr. Trump. He has imposed more restrictions on trade with China, including limiting sales of American technology to Beijing, while funneling federal subsidies to American manufacturers trying to compete with Chinese production. And in a sharp break from Mr. Trump’s go-it-alone posture, Mr. Biden’s strategy relies on bringing international allies together to counter China through a mix of [domestic incentives](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/19/us/politics/biden-industrial-policy.html) and, potentially, coordinated tariffs on Chinese goods. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F05%2F14%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Fbiden-trump-china-trade.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F05%2F14%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Fbiden-trump-china-trade.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F05%2F14%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Fbiden-trump-china-trade.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F05%2F14%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Fbiden-trump-china-trade.html).

174005337 story [](//news.slashdot.org/index2.pl?fhfilter=china)[](//news.slashdot.org/index2.pl?fhfilter=usa) Posted by msmash on Wednesday May 29, 2024 @05:22PM from the fresh-coat-of-paint dept. American Lidar, a company registered in Michigan in December, is a subsidiary of China-based lidar maker Hesai Group, which the U.S. has labeled a security concern, WSJ reported Wednesday, citing policymakers and national-security experts. Chinese firms facing regulatory or reputational problems are [rebranding and creating U.S.-domiciled businesses to sell their wares](https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/url-chinese-companies-rebrand-us-8a0c3872) as the Biden administration expands the government entity lists that restrict Chinese companies' business dealings in the U.S., the report said. These moves, while legal, irritate regulators who can't enforce laws when it isn't clear who is behind a company. Hesai became a target in the U.S.-China tech-trade war after allegations that its laser sensors could be used to collect sensitive American data, and was added to the Defense Department list that designates companies as Chinese military entities operating in the U.S. BGI Genomics and DJI are also facing similar challenges and are attempting to rebrand or license their technology to American startups to avoid sanctions.

The EU has notified Beijing that it intends to impose tariffs of up to 38% on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, triggering duties of more than €2bn (£1.7bn) a year and a potential trade war with [China](https://www.theguardian.com/world/china). The tariffs will be applied provisionally from next month in line with World Trade Organization rules, which give China four weeks to challenge any evidence the EU provides to justify the levies on imported EVs. The move follows a nine-month investigation into alleged unfair state subsidies into Chinese battery electric vehicles (BEVs) including top brands such as BYD and Geely, which part owns the Swedish brand Polestar, and Shanghai’s SAIC, which owns the British brand MG. “The provisional findings of the EU anti-subsidy investigation indicate that the entire BEV value chain benefits heavily from unfair subsidies in China, and that the influx of subsidised Chinese imports at artificially low prices therefore presents a threat of clearly foreseeable and imminent injury to EU industry,” the EU said in a statement. Under the plan, the EU will apply five levels of tariffs. EV manufacturers that cooperated with Brussels investigators will face a tariff of 21%, while those who did not will be hit with the top tier of 38.1%. SAIC faces the top tariff, Geely faces a tariff of 20%, while a 17.4% duty will be applied to BYD brands, which include the Dolphin and Seal cars launched in the EU last year. It is understood that Tesla cooperated with the EU and may initially face the 21% tariff. The EU indicated this could be revised next month to its own individually calculated duty rate after assessing evidence submitted by the US company. The EU vice-president Margaritis Schinas said the provisional results of the investigation showed the car production in China benefited from “unfair subsidisation, which is causing a threat of economic injury to EU battery electric vehicles producers”. He added that the EU had “reached out the Chinese authorities to discuss these findings and possible ways to resolve the issue”. European manufacturers are also bracing themselves for a hit from retaliatory measures, with the value of all EU vehicles exported valued at close to €200bn in 2023 making China the bloc’s third most important market by share (10%) after the US and the UK. The EU [is fully expecting China](https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/09/eu-import-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles) to also impose counter duties on a range of its exports, from French cognac to dairy products. But insiders say the question of overcapacity of China’s car manufacturers is now becoming a domestic issue in many economies around the world. Chinese-made electric car sales, including foreign brands such as Tesla, accounted for 21.7% of the EU market in 2023 a massive leap from the 2.9% in 2020. In December last year the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, tried to persuade China that access to the world’s largest open economy was conditional on a level playing field, arguing that China could not just dump the surplus of products in the bloc. The EU charges non-EU car manufacturers a 10% levy on imports and tariffs. . While the EU argues that Chinese manufacturers can easily absorb the increased levies, they are bracing themselves for a testing trade war with Beijing. The assumption is that China’s president, Xi Jinping, will see it as a battle of strength which he must win as green tech is one of the few sectors in which the country’s economy is growing. However, senior sources say that the question of EV dumping is also causing concern in non-EU member states and there is a determination to ensure that China cannot have global dominance in electric cars and other green tech products. [skip past newsletter promotion](https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/12/eu-import-tariffs-chinese-evs-electric-vehicles-trade-war#EmailSignup-skip-link-16) Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning **Privacy Notice:** Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our [Privacy Policy](https://www.theguardian.com/help/privacy-policy). We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google [Privacy Policy](https://policies.google.com/privacy) and [Terms of Service](https://policies.google.com/terms) apply. after newsletter promotion The subject is expected to come up at the G7 summit in Italy on Thursday with the EU hoping to persuade other leaders that the response to China’s overcapacity in cars, steel and other items including solar panels and electric vehicle batteries needs to be “targeted”. Sources point to Joe Biden’s recent decision [to slap 100% tariffs on Chinese EV imports](https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/14/joe-biden-tariff-chinese-made-electric-vehicles) and argue that all partners in the G7 should not take unilateral measures that would damage another partner in the group. Turkey has also announced tariffs on Chinese EVs of 40%. There are fears that the raising of tariffs in the US will have a knock-on effect in Europe, with China pivoting even more exports to the EU. According to those familiar with the subject, there are also worries among G7 members that overcapacity of Chinese production could hit emerging economies such as Brazil, Mexico and India. Leaders gathering at the G7 are expected to raise the topic of small Chinese banks funding deals with Russia amid concern this is bolstering the Kremlin’s war effort. A spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry said on Wednesday that the prospect of tariffs was “protectionism”. Lin Jian told a press briefing in Beijing that politicians and industry representatives from many European countries had expressed opposition to Brussels on the matter of tariffs, in what could be a reference to Germany, which is concerned about counter-measures on its own car exports to China. “Protectionism has no future, and openness and cooperation are the right way, Lin said.

The owner of the Jeep, Fiat and Vauxhall brands has said it will not take a defensive stance in the battle for electric car sales, amid signs of an escalating trade war in the market between [Europe](https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news) and China. Stellantis’s chief executive, Carlos Tavares, has criticised the EU tariffs on imported Chinese cars [announced on Wednesday](https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/12/eu-import-tariffs-chinese-evs-electric-vehicles-trade-war) and said the world’s fourth biggest carmaker preferred to “fight to stay competitive”. The European Commission intends to apply additional duties of up to 38.1% on imported China-made electric cars from July, a move that Beijing is likely to retaliate against. Europe’s car industry had been opposed to the tariffs, with German carmakers the most exposed to a trade war as almost a third of their sales came from China last year. “The German industry is very much exposed to Chinese business and this is the reason why Germany is expressing a negative option about those tariffs,” Tavares told journalists after an investor day. He added: “Correcting the tariff is correcting a lack of competitiveness… We prefer to race than to be told that we are going to be protected, because we do not believe that being protected is a long-lasting competitive position for a company like ours. “We are going to fight to be as competitive as we should be in the performance of the products, in the range, in the affordability; we’re going to compete because we are a global company.” Tavares said Stellantis would stick to its “asset-light” strategy in China, focused on exporting to the country rather than manufacturing there. Stellantis was created in 2021 from the [€40bn merger](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/31/fiat-chrysler-and-psa-peugeot-agree-35bn-merger#:~:text=Fiat%20Chrysler%20and%20Peugeot%20owner,merger%20%7C%20Automotive%20industry%20%7C%20The%20Guardian) between Italy’s Fiat Chrysler and the French owner of Peugeot, PSA. “What is clear is that we don’t want to be defensive,” he told investors in Michigan. “Our strategy, that remains an asset-light strategy, is about making sure that we are ourselves offensive and surfing the wave of the Chinese offensive. Our asset-light strategy in China is much more robust than that of many of our competitors.” Stellantis has bought a 21% stake in the Chinese carmaker Leapmotor and has formed a joint venture with it allowing the European company to sell and manufacture Leapmotor’s vehicles outside China. [Stellantis](https://www.theguardian.com/business/stellantis) leads the venture with a 51% stake and plans to export two electric vehicle models from China by the end of the year. The new EU tariffs come on top of the existing 10% levy on cars imported into the EU, meaning some Chinese-made electric cars face total tariffs of up to 48%. The tariffs are aimed at [countering the alleged state support](https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/12/how-will-new-eu-tariffs-on-chinese-electric-vehicles-work) handed to China’s car manufacturing industry, which has allowed it to sell cars abroad at cheaper prices than those of global rivals. [skip past newsletter promotion](https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/13/stellantis-says-it-will-fight-for-electric-car-sales-rather-than-hide-behind-tariffs#EmailSignup-skip-link-11) Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning **Privacy Notice:** Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our [Privacy Policy](https://www.theguardian.com/help/privacy-policy). We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google [Privacy Policy](https://policies.google.com/privacy) and [Terms of Service](https://policies.google.com/terms) apply. after newsletter promotion China criticised the EU tariffs on Thursday as protectionist behaviour and said it hoped the European bloc would correct its “wrong practices”. Stellantis shares closed 2.8% lower, similar to other European carmakers, due to uncertainty over how Beijing would respond to the tariffs. Tavares said that at least two of Stellantis’s plants in the US needed “significant turnaround”. “We know what to do,” he said.

In March 2018, a day after announcing sweeping tariffs on metals imported from America’s allies and adversaries alike, President Donald J. Trump [took to social media](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/969525362580484098) to share one of his central economic philosophies: “Trade wars are good, and easy to win.” As president, Mr. Trump presided over the biggest increase in U.S. tariffs since the Great Depression, hitting China, Canada, the European Union, Mexico, India and other governments with stiff levies. They hit back, imposing tariffs on American soybeans, whiskey, orange juice and motorcycles. U.S. agricultural exports [plummeted](https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/chinasoyebot.pdf), prompting Mr. Trump to send [$23 billion](https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-22-104259) to farmers to help offset losses. Now, as he runs for president again, Mr. Trump is promising to ratchet up his trade war to a much greater degree. He has proposed “universal baseline tariffs on most foreign products,” including higher levies on certain countries that devalue their currency. In interviews, he has floated plans for [a 10 percent tariff](https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6334380407112) on most imports and a tariff of [60 percent or more](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAg99owBB6w) on Chinese goods. He has also posited cutting the federal income tax and relying on tariffs for revenue instead. Mr. Trump, who once [proclaimed himself](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1069970500535902208) “Tariff Man,” has long argued that tariffs would boost American factories, end the gap between what America imported and what it exported and increase American jobs. His first round of levies hit more than $400 billion worth of imports, including steel, solar panels, washing machines and Chinese goods like smart watches, chemicals, bicycle helmets and motors. His rationale was that import taxes would revive American manufacturing, reduce reliance on foreign goods and allow U.S. companies to better compete against cheap products from China and other countries. Economists say the tariffs did reduce imports and encouraged U.S. factory production for certain industries, including steel, semiconductors and computer equipment. But that came at a very high cost, one that most likely offset any overall gains. Studies show that the tariffs [resulted in higher prices](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26610/w26610.pdf) for American consumers and factories that depend on foreign inputs, and [reduced U.S. exports](https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/102980/err-304.pdf) for certain goods that were subject to retaliation. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F06%2F27%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Ftrump-trade-tariffs-imports.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F06%2F27%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Ftrump-trade-tariffs-imports.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F06%2F27%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Ftrump-trade-tariffs-imports.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F06%2F27%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Ftrump-trade-tariffs-imports.html).

[Business](/business/) | Tit for tat, not Tesla  Photograph: AP IN the TRADE war between the West and China, a battle over [electric vehicles](https://www.economist.com/business/2024/06/12/the-eu-hits-chinas-carmakers-with-hefty-new-tariffs) (evs) has begun. In May, as part of a broader volley against Chinese tech, America slapped a 100% duty on Chinese evs. On July 2nd Canada launched a consultation on what it called “unfair Chinese trade practices” in the EV industry. Two days later a provisional tariff of 37.6% on Chinese EVs took effect in the EU. On July 10th, days after the symbolic swipe of opening an anti-dumping investigation into European brandy, China’s ministry of commerce signalled it will not take the assault lying down. It says it will study whether the EU’s tariffs create barriers to free trade. Western car companies with large Chinese businesses fear getting [caught in the crossfire](https://www.economist.com/international/2024/04/25/the-tech-wars-are-about-to-enter-a-fiery-new-phase). They would join earlier casualties of the intensifying conflict. Chinese government agencies have been told to tear out software and hardware made by American firms such as IBM, Microsoft and Oracle, ostensibly on national-security grounds. Some officials have even been told not to buy Apple’s iPhones.  Its woes illustrate the excesses of a lean-and-mean era in corporate America  Why there is little sign of a defence-industry bonanza in a post-peace world  The Spanish lender places brave political bets at home and abroad  Its woes illustrate the excesses of a lean-and-mean era in corporate America  Why there is little sign of a defence-industry bonanza in a post-peace world  The Spanish lender places brave political bets at home and abroad Everyone from tycoons to typical middle-class families seeks shelter Rules to make gabfests vaguely useful As austerity hits Tinseltown, rivalries are giving way to alliances

If not for the trade war between the world’s two largest economies, Easy Signs would now be hiring dozens of workers at its factory in Allentown, Pa. It would be readying plans to build a second plant somewhere out West — Salt Lake City was a contender — generating another 100 jobs. Based in Australia, Easy Signs manufactures banners and marketing installations for corporate events, using huge printers to press logos and slogans onto rolls of cloth. Its American business has been growing 70 percent a year. Still, the company is putting off an expansion. Its cloth signs are displayed on aluminum stands made in China. Those products are now subject to a series of tariffs reaching as high as 365 percent under a [policy](https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2018/june/ustr-issues-tariffs-chinese-products) set in motion by former President Donald J. Trump and continued by the Biden administration in the name of protecting American industry from Chinese government subsidies. The costs of imported components could increase further should Mr. Trump win November’s presidential election and follow through on his threat to add a tariff of [60 percent](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/us/politics/trump-trade-tariffs-imports.html) or more on all Chinese goods, and 10 percent to all imports. “That’s definitely a scary concept,” said Andy Fryer, co-founder of Easy Signs. “The whole feasibility goes out the window.” The Allentown, Pa., factory of Easy Signs. Credit...Aaron Richter for The New York Times Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F08%2F19%2Fbusiness%2Fchina-us-trade-war.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F08%2F19%2Fbusiness%2Fchina-us-trade-war.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F08%2F19%2Fbusiness%2Fchina-us-trade-war.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F08%2F19%2Fbusiness%2Fchina-us-trade-war.html).

European milk and cheese producers have become the latest target in a simmering trade war with China BEIJING -- European milk and cheese producers have become the latest target in [a simmering trade war](https://apnews.com/article/china-eu-tariffs-ev-trade-e21cc7386a7e2ce6370b948ecba5adb9) with China. The Chinese Commerce Ministry said Wednesday that it would launch an investigation into subsidies given by the European Union and EU member countries for dairy products that could lead to tariffs on their export to China. The announcement came one day after the EU released a draft decision to finalize tariffs on electric vehicles made in China, in a follow-up to [provisional tariffs](https://apnews.com/article/europe-china-electric-vehicles-customs-trade-705e8f18964b2e77ec076675522bcc83) announced last month. The tariffs have been denounced by the Chinese government and automakers and threaten to set back the industry's efforts to go global. The dairy investigation will cover a range of products including fresh and processed cheese, blue cheese and milk and cream with a fat content of more than 10%, a Commence Ministry notice said. It will look at subsidies under the EU's Common Agricultural Policy as well as those given by eight European Union countries including Italy, Finland and Croatia. The Commerce Ministry previously opened investigations into European brandy and [pork exports](https://apnews.com/article/china-eu-pork-ev-tariff-31a110502889141200bfb0d99be3f59a) at various stages of the EU investigation into Chinese subsidies for electric vehicles. The tit-for-tat investigations have raised fears that a full-blown trade war could be gradually emerging. “Regrettably, the use of trade defense instruments by one government is increasingly being responded to seemingly in kind by the recipient government,” the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said in a statement. China also filed [a complaint with the World Trade Organization](https://apnews.com/article/china-eu-wto-ev-tariffs-46e93252625475e1af0e023282802705) after the EU announced the provisional tariffs on China-made EVs. The EU Commission said Tuesday that it is confident that its investigation and provisional tariffs comply with WTO rules. The EU's draft decision on final EV tariffs made mostly minor modifications to the provisional rates. Autos exported by BYD, the largest EV maker in China, would face a 17% tariff, while those from Shanghai-based SAIC Motor would be hit with the highest rate of 36.3%. Tesla, which exports autos from China, was given a tariff of 9% “at this stage” after it requested an examination of the specific subsidies it had received, the EU Commission said. The tariffs are subject to the approval of the EU member states. A final decision must be made by early November, four months after the July 5 effective date of the provisional tariffs.

The Biden-Harris Administration [has announced new regulations](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/13/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-actions-to-protect-american-consumers-workers-and-businesses-by-cracking-down-on-de-minimis-shipments-with-unsafe-unfairly-traded-products/) aimed at curbing the “significant increased abuse” of the de minimis exemption by Chinese e-commerce giants, including [Shein](https://qz.com/amazon-shein-temu-low-cost-storefront-retailers-1851563470?_gl=1*s8lh1r*_ga*MzUxNzY2NjAwLjE3MjAwMTcyMjA.*_ga_V4QNJTT5L0*MTcyNjIzNzk3NS4xMS4xLjE3MjYyMzc5ODguNDcuMC4w), [Temu](https://qz.com/temu-founder-china-richest-person-billionaire-1851617819?_gl=1*1wo4csu*_ga*MzUxNzY2NjAwLjE3MjAwMTcyMjA.*_ga_V4QNJTT5L0*MTcyNjIzNzk3NS4xMS4xLjE3MjYyMzk2OTYuMzMuMC4w), and [Alibaba](https://qz.com/alibaba-scraps-planned-ipo-of-cainiao-logistics-unit-as-1851365708?_gl=1*1wo4csu*_ga*MzUxNzY2NjAwLjE3MjAwMTcyMjA.*_ga_V4QNJTT5L0*MTcyNjIzNzk3NS4xMS4xLjE3MjYyMzk2OTYuMzMuMC4w). Rising use of the exemption, which allows shipments valued at $800 or less to enter the U.S. duty free, has raised concerns over potential consumer [safety risks](https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/business/cpsc-shein-temu-investigation/index.html) and [fair trade](https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2023-04/Issue_Brief-Shein_Temu_and_Chinese_E-Commerce.pdf) violations. The volume of these types of shipments entering the U.S. has skyrocketed from about 140 million annually a decade ago to over one billion today, the White House said in a statement. This increase has [complicated the enforcement of trade laws and health standards](https://qz.com/google-and-meta-are-making-billons-on-temu-u-s-push-1851316823?_gl=1*jts9h*_ga*MzUxNzY2NjAwLjE3MjAwMTcyMjA.*_ga_V4QNJTT5L0*MTcyNjIzNzk3NS4xMS4xLjE3MjYyMzc5ODguNDcuMC4w), making it harder to block the entry of hazardous products such as counterfeit goods and “illicit synthetic drugs such as fentanyl.” Many of these shipments come from [Chinese e-commerce platforms](https://qz.com/temu-amazon-online-shopping-delivery-warehouses-1851391780?_gl=1*2r77da*_ga*MTkzNTUxMDgwMy4xNzI0MjQ2NjI3*_ga_V4QNJTT5L0*MTcyNjIzMzM0OS40MS4xLjE3MjYyMzY2NTUuNjAuMC4w) that, the White House said, exploit the exemption to [flood the market with low-cost items](https://qz.com/walmart-target-costco-home-depot-lowes-retail-inflation-1851629124?_gl=1*1rv1p8y*_ga*MzUxNzY2NjAwLjE3MjAwMTcyMjA.*_ga_V4QNJTT5L0*MTcyNjIzNzk3NS4xMS4xLjE3MjYyMzc5ODguNDcuMC4w) while evading tariffs. To combat these issues, the administration said it plans to introduce new rules to close the loophole. The proposed regulations will prevent shipments from avoiding tariffs if they contain products already subject to penalties. Additionally, the rules will enhance data collection for de minimis shipments, requiring detailed information such as a 10-digit classification number and the identity of the filer. These changes aim to improve tracking and enforcement, while clarifying eligibility for the exemption. The administration is also urging Congress to pass comprehensive de minimis reform legislation by the end of the year. Some of those proposed reforms include excluding sensitive products from the exemption and increasing transparency for shipments claiming de minimis status. The administration said such legislative changes would help protect American consumers, workers, and businesses, including U.S.-based textile and apparel manufacturers, ensuring fair competition and market safety. These announcements from the White House today mark the latest development in the [U.S.-China trade war](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/19/business/china-us-trade-war.html), and closely follow the release of [new export controls](https://qz.com/us-release-export-controls-chips-ai-quantum-computing-1851641981) aiming to [curb China’s progress with AI](https://qz.com/us-china-taiwan-cold-war-ai-chips-tsmc-semiconductors-1851484430?_gl=1*77d7ay*_ga*MzUxNzY2NjAwLjE3MjAwMTcyMjA.*_ga_V4QNJTT5L0*MTcyNjIzNzk3NS4xMS4xLjE3MjYyMzk0NTIuNjAuMC4w).

In a sprawling factory in eastern Shanghai, where marshy plains have long since been converted into industrial parks, China’s most advanced chipmaker has been hard at work testing the limits of U.S. authority. [Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation](https://www.nytimes.com/topic/company/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corporation), or SMIC, is manufacturing chips with features less than one-15,000th of the thickness of a sheet of paper. The chips pack together enough computing power to create advancements like artificial intelligence and 5G networks. It’s a feat that has been achieved by just a few companies globally — and one that has landed SMIC in the middle of a crucial geopolitical rivalry. U.S. officials say such advanced chip technology is central not just to commercial businesses [but also to military superiority](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/04/technology/china-ai-microchips.html). They have been fighting to keep it out of Chinese hands, by barring China from buying both the world’s most cutting-edge chips and the machinery to make them. Whether China can advance and outrace the United States technologically now hinges on SMIC, a partly state-backed company that is the sole maker of advanced chips in the country and has become its de facto national semiconductor champion. SMIC pumps out millions of chips a month for other companies that design them, such as Huawei, the Chinese technology firm under U.S. sanctions, as well as American firms like Qualcomm. So far, SMIC hasn’t been able to produce chips as advanced as those of rivals such as [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/04/technology/the-chip-titan-whose-lifes-work-is-at-the-center-of-a-tech-cold-war.html) in Taiwan, or others in South Korea and the United States. But it is racing forward with a new A.I. chip for Huawei called the Ascend 910C, which is expected to be released this year. Huawei’s chip is not as fast or sophisticated as the [coveted processors](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/technology/nvidia-quarterly-earnings-results.html) from Nvidia, the U.S. chip giant, which the White House has [banned for sale](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/07/business/economy/biden-chip-technology.html) in China. SMIC can also most likely make only a small fraction of what Chinese firms want to buy, experts said. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F09%2F16%2Ftechnology%2Fsmic-china-us-trade-war.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F09%2F16%2Ftechnology%2Fsmic-china-us-trade-war.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F09%2F16%2Ftechnology%2Fsmic-china-us-trade-war.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F09%2F16%2Ftechnology%2Fsmic-china-us-trade-war.html).

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to warn that installing steep tariffs, like those proposed by former President Donald Trump, would be “deeply misguided” for consumers and corporations. Although Yellen isn’t expected to refer to the Republican presidential candidate by name when she speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations on Thursday afternoon, she does reference his repeated calls for massive tariffs on foreign goods, according to excerpts released by the Treasury Department. “Calls for walling America off with high tariffs on friends and competitors alike or by treating even our closest allies as transactional partners are deeply misguided,” Yellen said in the excerpts. “Sweeping, untargeted tariffs would raise prices for American families and make our businesses less competitive.” Yellen is also expected to push back against a “go it alone” philosophy when it comes to advancing economic and security interests. Dealing with everything from climate change to broken supply chains “means we cannot simply draw from an old playbook,” she will say. On Tuesday, while speaking to the Economic Club of Chicago, Trump called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the world” and said his proposed duties would “bring companies back to our country.” While speaking about his proposed tariffs, he suggested putting duties as high as 2,000% on foreign vehicles. Yellen is also expected to defend President Joe Biden’s own [tariffs](https://qz.com/biden-us-china-china-tariffs-evs-chips-electric-cars-1851474998?_gl=1*6felk0*_ga*MTE4MDM2MDY4NS4xNzA4NDU3NDgx*_ga_V4QNJTT5L0*MTcyOTE2NTYwNC42MS4xLjE3MjkxNzEwMTUuNjAuMC4w) on Chinese-made vehicles. Between 2018 and 2020, the Trump administration raised taxes on U.S. imports from China by more than 500%. Those goods represented more than a fifth of everything that Americans purchased abroad, [Quartz reported in 2020](https://qz.com/1874110/how-much-trade-is-dodging-trumps-china-tariffs). Prior to Trump’s trade war, the U.S.’s tariffs were among the [lowest in the world](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/03/22/u-s-tariffs-are-among-the-lowest-in-the-world-and-in-the-nations-history/), averaging at around 1.6%. On the 2024 campaign trail, Trump has proposed raising imports on China [by as much as 50%](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/trumps-proposed-blanket-tariffs-would-risk-global-trade-war), to 60% in total, while adding duties of 10% to 20% against products from the rest of the world. He’s also talked about a “[100% tariff](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/09/economist-calls-trumps-threat-to-tariff-countries-that-shun-the-dollar-a-lose-lose.html)” on countries that “leave” the U.S. dollar. His tariffs could, by some estimates, add between $1,700 to [$7,600 in annual costs](https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-macroeconomic-and-price-estimates-tariffs-under-both-non-retaliation-and-retaliation) to American households. According to the [Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy](https://qz.com/donald-trump-tax-cuts-wealthiest-americans-tarrifs-1851667005) (ITEP), his potential tariffs hikes would outweigh the effects of any tax cuts he’d institute for 95% of American households. “They would cause substantial price increases on imported goods, severely damage the industries that rely on imports, hurting employment in those industries, and result in price increases for goods for which final production occurs domestically,” the ITEP said of the tariffs, which it noted “would massively disrupt the economy.”

The global economy has managed to avoid falling into a recession even though the world’s central banks have raised interest rates to their highest levels in years to try to tame rapid inflation, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. But the I.M.F., in a new report, also cautioned that escalating violence in the Middle East and the prospect of a new round of trade wars stemming from political developments in the United States remain significant threats. New economic forecasts released by the fund on Tuesday showed that the global fight against soaring prices has largely been won: Global output is expected to hold steady at 3.2 percent this year and next. Fears of a widespread post-pandemic contraction have been averted, but the fund warned that many countries still face a challenging mix of high debt and sluggish growth. The report was released as finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world convened in Washington for the annual meetings of the I.M.F. and the World Bank. The gathering is taking place two weeks ahead of a presidential election in the United States that could result in a major shift toward protectionism and tariffs if former President Donald J. Trump is elected. Mr. Trump has threatened to impose across-the-board tariffs of as much as 50 percent, most likely setting off retaliation and trade wars. Economists think that could fuel price increases and slow growth, [possibly leading to a recession.](https://www.aei.org/economics/the-economic-consequences-of-a-second-trump-presidency/) “Fear of a Trump presidency will loudly reverberate behind the scenes,” said Mark Sobel, a former Treasury official who is now the U.S. chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Mr. Sobel said global policymakers would probably be wondering what another Trump presidency would “mean for the future of multilateralism, international cooperation, U.S.-China stresses and their worldwide ripples, and global trade and finance, among others.” Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F10%2F22%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fimf-inflation-trade-war.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F10%2F22%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fimf-inflation-trade-war.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F10%2F22%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fimf-inflation-trade-war.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F10%2F22%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fimf-inflation-trade-war.html).

The world economy could contract by the size of the combined French and German economies, if there is a broad-based trade war between the world’s major economies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has told the BBC. It comes as concerns are heightened ahead of the possible re-election of Donald Trump. Trump says he plans to introduce a universal tax or tariff of up to 20% on all imports into the US, while the European Union is already planning retaliation if Washington goes ahead with the new levy. Last week, Trump said “tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary”, and global markets and finance ministers are now beginning to take seriously the prospect of him enacting the ideas. IMF first deputy managing director Gita Gopinath said the Fund could not yet assess the specifics of Trump's trade plans, but thinks that “if you have some very serious decoupling and broad scale use of tariffs, you could end up with a loss to world GDP of close to 7%". "These are very large numbers, 7% is basically losing the French and German economies. That's the size of the loss that would be," she continued. Ms Gopinath also said tariffs worth hundreds of billions of dollars “is very different from the world we’ve lived in over the past two of three decades”. The IMF’s deputy chief said another of the Fund’s main messages at its Annual Meetings was to warn on ballooning levels of global government debt. She said the current period of steady economic growth was a “moment to rebuild your fiscal buffers” as “this will not be the last crisis. There will be additional shocks. You will need the fiscal space to respond. And now is the time to do it”. Ms Gopinath said it was also necessary to “look at the bright side” with a resilient world economy after “some very tough knocks”. She suggested the world economy had seen a soft landing from the multiple crises. “Past experiences with bringing down inflation have not been with a soft landing. It was a big, big increases in unemployment. So that was a big hit, and it has turned out to be much better than many feared”, she said. Ms Gopinath added that it was a “good win” for central banks everywhere that inflation has come down without high unemployment. But that now was the time to rebuild resilience in a fragile world.

Donald Trump vowed on his campaign that he would tax all goods imported into the US if he won back the White House. Following his victory, businesses and economists around the world are scrambling to work out how serious he is. Trump sees tariffs as a way of growing the US economy, protecting jobs and raising tax revenue. In the past, he has targeted tariffs at individual countries such as China or certain industries, for example steel. But Trump's election campaign pledge to impose taxes of 10% to 20% on all foreign goods could affect prices all over the world. Last month, he appeared to single out Europe. "The European Union sounds so nice, so lovely, right? All the nice European little countries that get together... They don’t take our cars. They don't take our farm products," he said. "They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they are going to have to pay a big price." BMW, Mercedes and Volkswagen shares all fell between 5% and 7% after Trump's victory confirmation. The US is the single biggest export market for German carmakers. During his campaign, Trump said tariffs were the answer to myriad issues, including containing China and preventing illegal immigration. "Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary," he said. It is a weapon he clearly intends to use. While much of this rhetoric and action is aimed at China it does not end there. Some jurisdictions like the EU are already drawing up lists of pre-emptive retaliatory actions against the US, after ministers did not take seriously enough Trump's earlier threats of tariffs, which he later imposed. G7 finance ministers told me last week they would try to remind a Trump-led America of the need for allies in the world economy because "the idea is not to launch a trade war". However if "a very strong broad power is used", Europe would quickly consider its response. In the past the EU imposed tariffs on iconic American products such as Harley Davidson motorcycles, bourbon whiskey and Levi's jeans in response to US duties on steel and aluminium. A top Eurozone central banker told me US tariffs alone were "not inflationary in Europe but it depends on what Europe's reaction will be". Last month [the IMF told me](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1lg5reqlpyo ) a major trade war could hit the world economy by 7%, or the size of the French and German economies combined. There are very big questions for the UK government about where exactly the post-Brexit UK should seat itself in a plausible, if not certain, transatlantic trade war. The direction of travel until now for the UK has been to get closer to the EU, including on food and farm standards. This would make a close trade deal with the US very difficult. The Biden administration was uninterested in such a deal. Trump's still highly influential top trade negotiator Bob Lighthizer even said an assumption that the UK would stay close to the EU to help its own businesses had prevented him from pursuing a deal. "They are a much bigger trade partner to you than we are," [he told me in an interview.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000r87n) The UK could try and remain neutral, but would struggle to avoid the crossfire, especially for the goods trade in pharmaceuticals and cars. The rhetoric from the UK government suggests it could try to be a peacemaker in global trade wars, but would anyone listen? Britain could pick a side, by trying to be exempted from more general Trump tariffs. Diplomats have been heartened by more pragmatic economic advisers to the President-elect suggesting that friendly allies might get a better deal. Or would the world benefit more if the UK joined forces with the EU to head off the application of such trade tariffs? Away from the US, what about the example to the rest of the world? If the world's biggest economy is resorting to mass protectionism, it's going to be difficult to persuade many smaller economies not to do the same. All of this is very much up for grabs. Trump's warnings can be taken at face value. Nothing is certain, but this is how very serious trade wars can start.

 2024年11月8日，匈牙利，欧委会主席冯德莱恩、匈牙利总理欧尔班、欧洲理事会主席米歇尔。图片来源：视觉中国 > 记者 | 安晶 > > 编辑｜刘海川 当地时间2024年11月7日到8日，欧洲政治共同体峰会在匈牙利首都布达佩斯召开。包括乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基在内的40多名欧洲领导人重点讨论两个问题：如何应对美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普可能掀起的关税大战以及乌克兰的未来 ... 特朗普计划对所有进口商品征收10%到20%的关税，对中国商品征收60%或更高关税。本周胜选后，特朗普还对欧盟发出新警告，指责欧盟向美国出售汽车，但不买美国车和美国农产品，“你们要付出代价。” 美国大选投票开始之前，欧盟已经着手为特朗普的可能归来制定方案，包括报复性关税措施。但在特朗普最终亮剑之前，欧盟准备先向其示好，试图说服特朗普回心转意

Eight years ago, when a newly elected Donald J. Trump promised to apply the powers of the Oval Office to start a trade war with China, the target of his ire was widely viewed as a juggernaut. China was the indispensable factory floor to the world and a swiftly developing market for goods and services. As Mr. Trump now prepares for his second stint in the White House, he is vowing to intensify trade hostilities with China by imposing additional [tariffs of 60 percent](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/business/economy/trump-tariffs-trade-what-to-know.html) or more on all Chinese imports. He is pressuring a country that has been chastened by a powerful combination of overlapping forces: the calamitous end of a [real estate](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/business/china-foreclosures-mortgages.html) investment binge, incalculable losses in the [banking system](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/30/business/china-evergrande-banks-property.html), a local government [debt crisis](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/business/china-debt-moodys-outlook.html), flagging [economic growth](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/business/china-gdp-third-quarter.html) and chronically [low prices](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/business/china-pinduoduo-ecommerce.html) — a potential harbinger of long-term stagnation. The decline of fortunes at home has made Chinese companies especially focused on sales abroad. And that makes the country vulnerable to any threat to its export growth, a weakness that would enhance the expected pressure from the Trump administration as it plans to seek a deal that would increase Chinese purchases of American goods. “The balance of power has certainly shifted in favor of the United States,” said Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University who was previously the head of the China division at the International Monetary Fund. “The Chinese economy is not quite on the ropes, but it has been struggling for a while.” Yet complicating factors beneath that widely shared assessment may strengthen China’s ability to endure whatever measures the incoming Trump administration may have in store. Consumer spending in China has slumped, but the government has significant resources to stoke the domestic economy.Credit...Qilai Shen for The New York Times Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F11%2Fbusiness%2Ftrump-china-trade-war.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F11%2Fbusiness%2Ftrump-china-trade-war.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F11%2Fbusiness%2Ftrump-china-trade-war.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F11%2Fbusiness%2Ftrump-china-trade-war.html).

∙ [大国外交 >](/list_122905) 近段时间，美国当选总统特朗普的新一届内阁人选名单正逐步释出。关税被视为特朗普经济政策的核心，谁将出任美国商务部长一直备受外界关注 ... 据央视新闻11月20日报道，特朗普提名金融公司Cantor Fitzgerald的首席执行官霍华德·卢特尼克出任商务部长。当地时间19日，特朗普在个人社交平台发表声明称，卢特尼克将领导新一届政府的关税和贸易议程，并将直接负责美国贸易代表办公室的工作。随后，卢特尼克表达了对特朗普的感谢，“作为下一任商务部长，我将加入美国有史以来最好的政府，并充分释放我们的经济潜力。” 在经济政策上，卢特尼克与特朗普的言论保持一致，是其对外广泛征收关税的主要支持者。据美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）报道，大选期间卢特尼克常称赞特朗普的经济愿景，“终于有人来保护美国工人了”

 President-elect Donald Trump has tapped Brooke Rollins, president and CEO of the America First Policy Institute, to oversee the Department of Agriculture, one of the most sprawling federal agencies. Rollins was previously the director of the Domestic Policy Council during the first Trump administration. She has a long history in conservative politics, including also running the Texas Public Policy Foundation. Originally from Texas, she [graduated from Texas A&M University](https://americafirstpolicy.com/team/brookerollins) with a degree in agricultural development. She then got her law degree at the University of Texas school of Law. During the first Trump administration, Rollins also served as assistant to the president for [intergovernmental and technology initiatives](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-tech-adviser-reed-cordish-is-leaving-the-white-house/2018/02/16/2895303c-0870-11e8-8777-2a059f168dd2_story.html). After leaving the White House, Rollins was among a group of senior advisers to create the new nonprofit [group aimed at promoting Trump's policies](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/22/trump-advisers-launch-policy-group-449886)**.** As the new head of USDA she would oversee nearly 100,000 employees, and would oversee the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which makes up over half of its nutrition budget, as well as the Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) and school meal regulation. She would be the second woman to lead the department, following Ann Veneman who served under President George W. Bush. The department could be at the front lines of Trump's efforts to trim what he calls the "deep state" of federal bureaucracy and his efforts to implement tariffs on foreign goods — though it also provides crucial assistance to farmers and rural areas. The department distributes agricultural subsidies and is the first stop for farmers to receive financial assistance for their operations. USDA is also the only agency with a rural development branch that distributes federal broadband, housing and utilities programs to rural communities. The first Trump administration had to address the consequences of Trump's trade war with China and others, which resulted in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products [leading to decreased farmer profits](https://econofact.org/what-is-the-toll-of-trade-wars-on-u-s-agriculture). The federal government did step in with some assistance to boost incomes due to the [trade war, and then the COVID-19 pandemic.](https://civileats.com/2020/11/02/how-four-years-of-trump-reshaped-food-and-farming/) It is possible Trump could also sign a second farm bill into law, a potentially trillion-dollar bill reauthorized every five years to provide farmer safety nets, programing, rural development and government nutrition assistance. The last farm bill was [signed by Trump in 2018](https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2018/12/20/statement-secretary-perdue-president-trumps-signing-farm-bill) and Congress has since failed to reauthorize it. SNAP is estimated to serve [42 million participants](https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap/key-statistics-and-research/) each month with food benefits, and WIC serves about [40% of all infants in the United States](https://www.fns.usda.gov/wic). Making changes to the safety-net programs has been one of the sticking points for the legislation, in addition to its funds for conservation programs.

Donald Trump imposing massive US tariffs on Chinese imports could drag down global inflation by lowering the price of goods in other countries, a senior [Bank of England](https://www.theguardian.com/business/bankofenglandgovernor) policymaker has said. Swati Dhingra, an external member of the Bank’s rate-setting monetary policy committee, said Trump imposing a threatened [60% tariff on goods from China](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/07/more-tariffs-less-red-tape-what-trump-will-mean-for-key-global-industries) sold in the US could lead Chinese exporters to cut their prices elsewhere to ensure they maintained current trade volumes. “If there is the kind of big 60% type of tariff increase that’s been proposed, that will have repercussions on to world prices, and mostly on the downward direction,” she said. Speaking at a conference in London on Monday, the economist said there was heightened uncertainty about what policies the president-elect would carry through from the campaign trail. Trump warned before this month’s election that he would slap tariffs of up to 60% on [China](https://www.theguardian.com/world/china) and up to 20% on other US trade partners. However, Dhingra said the “textbook” impact of the world’s largest goods importer imposing such a large tariff on products from the world’s biggest exporter would be for global goods prices to fall. Chinese firms would respond to tougher trade barriers by attempting to find buyers in alternative markets, which could lead them to lower their prices to sell similar volumes, including in the UK, she said. “It takes a massive amount of demand out of the world market. The way exporters, say in China, would respond to that would be to respond with prices, world prices, as they don’t want to lose market share,” she said. Economists have warned Trump imposing punitive import tariffs on US trading partners will [drive up inflation in the world’s largest economy](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/06/inflation-looks-to-have-secured-trump-win-but-his-policies-mean-higher-prices), as the costs would be borne by US consumers. However, it would also affect the wider global economy. [skip past newsletter promotion](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/25/trump-tariff-on-china-could-lower-global-inflation-says-bank-economist#EmailSignup-skip-link-9) Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning **Privacy Notice:** Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our [Privacy Policy](https://www.theguardian.com/help/privacy-policy). We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google [Privacy Policy](https://policies.google.com/privacy) and [Terms of Service](https://policies.google.com/terms) apply. after newsletter promotion Dhingra said much would depend on the response to a burgeoning trade war, particularly if governments chose to retaliate with “tit for tat” tariffs on US imports, or with protectionist measures to prevent an influx of cheap Chinese goods reallocating away from the US market. “Then we’re in a completely different situation,” she said. Drawing a comparison with Brexit, Dhingra said that leaving the EU had led to “permanently” higher prices of products for British households. This had generated inflation as prices rose, before prices stabilised at a higher level. “We saw much higher price increases in the UK compared to everywhere else and those pressures have now come off much more quickly as well, for the reason they’re not inflationary, they change the price levels, permanently,” she said. Analysts have warned that the euro [risks falling to parity with the US dollar](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/25/possible-europe-us-trade-war-could-push-euro-into-parity-with-the-dollar) for the first time since late 2022 if a new transatlantic trade war weakens the already struggling eurozone economy.

Fears of a global trade war have risen after Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on countries in the [Brics group](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/21/brics-looks-to-expand-bloc-south-africa-summit-divisions-key-members-india) if they create a new currency to rival the US dollar. Writing on his social media platform, Truth Social, on Saturday, Trump declared that he would also act if they supported another currency to replace the dollar. “We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new Brics currency nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar or they will face 100% tariffs and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful [US economy](https://www.theguardian.com/business/useconomy),” Trump said. “They can go find another sucker. There is no chance that the [Brics](https://www.theguardian.com/business/brics) will replace the US dollar in international trade, and any country that tries should wave goodbye to America,” he added. The warning came less than a week after Trump declared he would impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China once he was inaugurated as president. [ Trump’s talk of tariffs raises fears of hit to economies worldwide ](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/26/trump-tariffs-china-mexico-canada) The Brics group was originally made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and has been joined by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran. Some Brics members have shown interest in de-dollarising the world economy. In October, Vladimir Putin called for an [alternative international payments system](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/23/putin-world-economy-bloc-brics-summit) that could prevent the US from using the dollar as a political weapon. Others, though, fear the consequences of severing relations with the US and other western countries by breaking away from the dollar, which underpins world finance. A 100% tariff at the US border, if implemented, would drive up sharply the cost of goods from Brics members, fuelling US inflation and destabilising global trade flows. Stephen Innes, a managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said Trump had laid down the gauntlet with a “blistering proposal” of a 100% tariff. [skip past newsletter promotion](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/dec/01/trump-threat-100-per-cent-tariffs-brics-nations-dollar#EmailSignup-skip-link-10) Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning **Privacy Notice:** Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our [Privacy Policy](https://www.theguardian.com/help/privacy-policy). We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google [Privacy Policy](https://policies.google.com/privacy) and [Terms of Service](https://policies.google.com/terms) apply. after newsletter promotion “Trump’s recent electoral triumph was heavily fortified by his promise to impose harsh tariffs on foreign imports to the US, advocating for an aggressive 60% tariff on Chinese goods,” he said. “This hardline approach on trade reflects Trump’s broader ‘America First’ economic policy, which aims to recalibrate global trade dynamics and reinforce US economic sovereignty. As the world watches, the potential for a global trade upheaval looms, setting the stage for a contentious start to Trump’s administration.”

China banned exports of minerals and metals used in semiconductor manufacturing and military applications to the United States on Tuesday, escalating tensions in the growing technology trade war between the world's two largest economies. The commerce ministry [halted shipments](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-bans-exports-gallium-other-102308172.html) of gallium, germanium, antimony and related compounds, citing national security concerns. These materials are crucial components in advanced electronics and military hardware, with China controlling 98% of global gallium production and 60% of germanium output, according to U.S. Geological Survey data. The move comes in direct response to Washington's new restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, including controls on high-bandwidth memory chips used in AI systems and limits on manufacturing equipment sales.

Every year, farmers in [California](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/california)’s Central valley heavily rely on the labor of hundreds of thousands of immigrant agricultural workers to grow and harvest their crops. But for many in a region that produces one-quarter of the country’s food, president-elect [Donald Trump](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/donaldtrump)’s promise to deport millions of undocumented migrants – a move that could result in national agricultural output [falling by up to $60bn](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-mass-deportation-farmers-1987371) – is not a threat to their livelihoods. Some just don’t seem to believe him. “I don’t see that there’s going to be a push to go chase anyone who’s willing to work on a farm,” says Tom Barcellos, who milks 1,600 Holstein cows on his [farm](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/farming) in Tulare county. As Trump’s tariffs and deportations threats grow louder, many Americans are at a loss to understand why voters in farming-dependent counties across the US are so loyal to the president-elect, backing him by a [margin of three to one](https://investigatemidwest.org/2024/11/13/trump-election-farming-counties-trade-war/) in November’s presidential election. But farmers such as Barcellos say they trust Trump. During his first White House bid, Trump met Barcellos and other Central valley growers in person to hear out their concerns around water access for their farms. At the time, environmental regulations meant that farmers and growers in the region faced higher restrictions to accessing water in part due to efforts to protect fish and other wildlife. “He understood our situation with water; he understood what the business climate was in agriculture and that there was so much regulation that was hampering our ability to do anything,” he says. “He promised to make improvements.” Three years into his administration, in 2020, [Trump did exactly that](https://apnews.com/article/ddaf365a5b5528d4949b478e92daf98b). [](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/07/trump-immigration-trade-policy-farmer-votes#img-2) Migrant workers pick strawberries during harvest south of San Francisco, California. Photograph: Joe Sohm/Visions of America/Universal Images Group/Getty Images As the Biden era comes to a close, farmers such as Barcellos say they are drowning in expenses and red tape resulting from strict environmental and emissions regulations introduced by Democratic leaders at the federal and state levels, at a time when American agriculture is in free fall. A [drought](https://www.agriculture.com/lack-of-rain-forecast-for-corn-belt-heightens-drought-fire-concerns-8723624) in the Corn belt, [low crop prices](https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/agriculture/2024/For-Farmers-Lower-Grain-Prices-Could-be-Sign-of-Things-to-Come.html), and China moving away from its once-longstanding dependency on US corn and soybeans has many [American farmers on their knees](https://missouriindependent.com/2024/09/30/farmers-struggle-with-bleak-situation-as-congress-waffles-on-new-farm-bill/). The number of US farms fell by 141,000 between 2017 and 2022, [according to](https://www.fb.org/news-release/new-census-shows-alarming-loss-of-family-farms) US Department of Agriculture census data. Despite his threats and bluster, farmers see Trump as a bulwark against a progressive environmental movement that, some of them say, has created major problems for agriculture without providing solutions. “The emissions issue has raised the cost of all of our equipment to ridiculous levels,” says Barcellos, a third-generation farmer. He says the same model of hauling truck he bought five years ago is $100,000 more expensive to buy today. [Some reports suggest](https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-are-balking-at-the-high-costs-of-running-electric-trucks-fed0ce6e) that running electric big rigs costs as much as twice that of diesel equivalents. Last year the California Air Resources Board [voted to ban](https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/04/california-phases-out-diesel-trucks/) sales of new diesel trucks by 2036. “I can’t afford an electric truck. Period,” says Barcellos. On the tariffs front, many farmers believe Trump will ultimately have their back. Although his previous tariffs war cost American agriculture around $27bn in 2018 and 2019, Trump then reportedly [gave farmers record handouts worth $32bn](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/14/donald-trump-coronavirus-farmer-bailouts-359932) in direct farming aid to counter the effects. Should Trump reignite his trade war next year, [some observers believe](https://www.farmprogress.com/farm-policy/will-trump-tariffs-benefit-agriculture-trade-) similar efforts may again be in the offing. But others believe that Trump’s anticipated efforts to impose tariffs on foreign goods may not have the same effect as previously. With China no longer as dependent on US corn and soybeans – America’s top two export commodities – as it was during Trump’s first trade war, industry specialists say China is better prepared and instead worry that a new trade war could hit US farmers over the long term. “While it’s possible to divert exports to other nations, there is not enough demand from the rest of the world to offset the major loss of soybean exports to China,” [an October report](https://ncga.com/stay-informed/media/the-corn-economy/article/2024/10/trade-study-how-potential-new-tariffs-could-impact-u-s-soybeans-and-corn) by the National Corn Growers Association found. Others wonder if sending checks to farmers to offset potential income losses is sustainable. “Tariffs and comprehensive deportations will affect the economy and mean that it’s going to be worse for the grain markets, domestic food production and processing, plus the national debt than what has happened under the Democrats,” says Bill Wiley, a farmer in Shelby county, Ohio, who hires a small number of Nicaraguan workers to harvest gourds and pumpkins at his farm every fall through the H-2A agricultural visa program. “All of that should be turning off farmers.” While Harris carried her home state of California handily, in Barcellos’ largely agricultural Tulare county, just 200 miles from Oakland, her hometown, [Trump won by more than 20%](https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/president/county/tulare). Not all farmers, Wiley included, voted for Trump, and given the president-elect’s apparent threats to agriculture and food production, he’s at a loss to explain why many farmers would. Either way, what happens once Trump takes office next month is likely to affect millions of people. “If we assume that half of our agricultural workforce is undocumented, we can safely say that the best-case scenario for mass deportations is that American food production and supply is cut in half,” says James O’Neill of the American Business Immigration Coalition. Around 45%, or 1 million, of US agricultural workers are undocumented. “We need legislation that legalizes the hardworking farm workers we already rely on – those with no criminal records, who have shown their commitment to the US and to American farmers.” Barcellos, who also serves as president of the Lower Tule River irrigation district, maintains that a host of Democratic policies and laws are hurting agriculture. Rather than helping immigrant workers, he believes that California’s $15.50 minimum wage for farmer workers and $19.75 an hour for H-2A workers is instead hastening the industry’s move towards mechanization, “and the workers hate that”. “California is forcing the hand of mechanization where they are trying to stop equipment from running because of the emissions they produce,” he says. “We are run by the coastal cities. We don’t have a fighting chance.”

[SPGI+0.80%](https://qz.com/quote/SPGI)[GS+1.20%](https://qz.com/quote/GS)[CMCSA+0.47%](https://qz.com/quote/CMCSA) President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs threats are just that — for now. But businesses could face new costs as soon as next month if he sticks to his guns. Although his ideas have frequently varied in scope and size, Trump has floated general tariffs of up to 20% on imported goods, as well as up to 60% on China. In recent weeks, he’s [threatened](https://qz.com/trump-tariffs-car-automakers-raise-prices-gm-ford-ram-1851711174) Canada and Mexico, the nation’s top trade partners, with 25% tariffs and China with 10% tariffs unless they meet his demands regarding illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. “It’s a lot, and we have to take it seriously,” [Chandri Navarro](https://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/people/n/navarro-chandri), senior counsel at Baker & McKenzie’s international commercial and trade practice, said of the myriad proposals. “Because those are the kinds of threats that he made prior to his first administration, and then he actually did put them into effect,” barring some [exceptions](https://www.axios.com/2019/06/08/trump-claims-reached-deal-mexico). “It has to be taken seriously,” she added. “When he made those threats, a lot of us thought it was bluster and that there’s no way that he would put these into effect — but he did.” In 2018, Trump [ordered](https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/donald-trump-china-tariffs-trade-war-xi-jinping-video/) large tariffs on Chinese products, including 30% on solar panels and electric vehicles, [followed by](https://www.npr.org/2018/03/08/591744195/trump-expected-to-formally-order-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum-imports) 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum from most countries, sparking a trade war with China and angering several countries, including [India](https://money.cnn.com/2018/06/17/news/economy/india-us-tariffs-steel-aluminum-wto/index.html) and [Canada](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/29/canada-makes-retaliatory-tariffs-official-we-will-not-back-down.html). In 2019, he proposed tariffs on all imports from Mexico “until such time as” illegal immigration to the U.S. ended. Those tariffs were [averted](https://texastribune.org/2019/06/07/trump-tariff-threat-dropped-mexico-stem-tide-central-american-migrants/) days before they were set to take effect. Collectively, Trump levied almost $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans through tariffs on thousands of products valued at $380 billion in 2018 and 2019, [according to the Tax Foundation](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/tariffs/). The trade war policies directly increased tax collections by an average of $200 to $300 per household, the nonprofit said in June. They were also bad for business. Trump’s tariffs were associated with lower future profits, sales, and employment for the firms whose equity prices were hit the hardest, according to a recent [analysis](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/12/do-import-tariffs-protect-u-s-firms/) from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Firms exposed to trade with China — roughly half of all publicly listed companies — saw profits that were about 13% lower than others. Although many companies have reduced their exposure to China, almost all rely to some degree on global trade. For some, Trump’s tariffs could wipe out any profits they make on certain goods. Tariffs on wine would [devastate](https://qz.com/donald-trump-tariffs-wine-restaurants-business-imports-1851700730) restaurants, which have “ridiculously low margins,” DeWayne Schaaf, chef and owner of [Celebrations,](https://www.celebrations-restaurant.com/) a fine dining restaurant in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, told Quartz last month. Proposed tariffs on light vehicles would cost European and U.S. automakers [up to 17% of their combined annual earnings](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241129-auto-industry-buckles-up-for-trump-s-proposed-tariffs-on-car-imports-13340097), according to S&P Global ([SPGI+0.80%](https://qz.com/quote/SPGI)). ‘Contingency measures’ ---------------------- That leaves corporations looking for a way out. According to a new report from Goldman Sachs ([GS+1.20%](https://qz.com/quote/GS)) analyzing public companies’ remarks on tariffs during earnings calls, corporations are eyeing three main strategies to deal with tariffs. Some are planning to pass at least some of the buck along to consumers while absorbing enough of the extra cost that customers don’t ditch the [product](https://qz.com/trump-tariff-proposal-china-10-items-apparel-shoes-1851697980) altogether. [Products like toasters, jeans, and refrigerators](https://qz.com/trump-tariff-proposal-china-10-items-apparel-shoes-1851697980) would suddenly become more expensive. That could cost consumers [between $46 billion and $78 billion](https://qz.com/trump-tariff-american-spending-78-billion-nrf-report-1851689209?_gl=1*e5xfee*_ga*MzI0MTc4MTE1LjE3MzAzMDkyMTg.*_ga_V4QNJTT5L0*MTczMzc2ODkwMC44Mi4xLjE3MzM3NzM3MDAuNDYuMC4w) in annual spending power, according to The National Retail Federation. Another strategy several companies have entertained is stockpiling imported goods ahead of the tariffs, thereby avoiding some of the impact to their supply chains. That’s an idea that Navarro has been discussing with clients over the last several months. “We’re advising our clients on taking contingency measures,” Navarro said. “ If there are materials or goods they import” that are at risk of being affected by tariffs, “they should ship as much of that material to the U.S. as possible before the tariffs are implemented,” she added. Several companies have also indicated they would shift their supply chains to avoid tariffed countries. However, Goldman noted that some acknowledged they would likely not reshore production back to the U.S. Not backing down ---------------- After Trump first broadcast his proposed tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican imports on social media, the leaders of those nations hit back. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum [responded](https://qz.com/donald-trump-tariffs-threat-mexico-china-canada-goods-1851708380) by signaling she would respond with her own tariffs before declaring that there would be “no potential trade war” between the two countries after a meeting with Trump. Chinese officials [criticized](https://www.businessinsider.com/how-china-is-reacting-to-trump-tariffs-markets-manufacturing-2024-11) the tariff threat, saying they wouldn’t “solve America’s own problems.” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau [flew](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/01/trudeau-trump-energy-trade-arctic-00192048) to Trump’s [Mar-a-Lago](https://qz.com/trump-maralago-membership-fees-access-president-florida-1851596419) resort and had what Trump called a “very productive meeting,” where they discussed issues ranging from energy and trade to fentanyl. Earlier that day, Trudeau had warned that Trump wasn’t kidding around. “I’m a big believer in tariffs. I think tariffs are the most beautiful word. I think they’re beautiful. It’s going to make us rich,” Trump [said](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-interview-meet-press-kristen-welker-election-president-rcna182857) during an interview with NBC’s ([CMCSA+0.47%](https://qz.com/quote/CMCSA)) _Meet the Press_ this week. “Tariffs are a — properly used, are a very powerful tool, not only economically, but also for getting other things outside of economics.” And he’s right, according to Warren Maruyama, former general counsel for the U.S. Trade Representative under George H.W. Bush. While the scope of Trump’s threats is “uncommon, if not unprecedented,” tariffs can broadly be useful, he said. They can help secure political support from some groups, like the [steel lobby](https://steelnet.org/steel-industry-submits-five-point-plan-for-manufacturing-to-incoming-administration/), protect vulnerable industries or secure concessions. The clearest way for Trump to enact tariffs would be to declare a national emergency, allowing him to invoke the [International Emergency Economic Powers Act](https://www.congress.gov/congressional-report/110th-congress/senate-report/82) and impose tariffs, Maruyama said. The decades-old legislation gives the president broad power over economic transactions. Trump even [cited](https://politico.com/news/2024/09/01/trump-universal-tariff-threat-00176746) it in 2019 when he threatened to slap Mexico with tariffs, although he stopped short of actually following through. “The gazillion-dollar question is whether this is just a negotiating strategy,” he added. “If he really is serious about the tariffs, \[the affected countries\] are probably going to hit back.”

Take lithium, a crucial component in those batteries. China has around [8% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-could-a-us-china-trade-war-mean-for-the-energy-transition/) but processes about 58% percent of the world’s lithium supply. The situation is similar for other key battery metals. Nickel that’s mined in Indonesia goes to China for processing, and the same goes for cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Over the past two decades, [China has thrown money, resources, and policy behind electric vehicles](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/02/21/1068880/how-did-china-dominate-electric-cars-policy/). Now China leads the world in EV registrations, many of the largest EV makers are Chinese companies, and the country is home to a huge chunk of the supply chain for the vehicles and their batteries. **As the world begins a shift toward technologies like EVs, it’s becoming clear just how dominant China’s position is in many of the materials crucial to building that tech.** Lithium prices have dropped by 80% over the past year, and while part of the reason is a slowdown in EV demand, another part is that China is oversupplying lithium, [according to US officials](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-is-oversupplying-lithium-eliminate-rivals-us-official-says-2024-10-08/). By flooding the market and causing prices to drop, China could make it tougher for other lithium processors to justify sticking around in the business. The new graphite controls from China could wind up affecting battery markets, too. Graphite is crucial for lithium-ion batteries, which use the material in their anodes. It’s still not clear whether the new bans will affect battery materials or just higher-purity material that’s used in military applications, [according to reporting from Carbon Brief](https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-could-a-us-china-trade-war-mean-for-the-energy-transition/). To this point, China hasn’t specifically banned exports of key battery materials, and it’s not clear exactly how far the country would go. Global trade politics are delicate and complicated, and any move that China makes in battery supply chains could wind up coming back to hurt the country’s economy. But we could be entering into a new era of material politics. Further restrictions on graphite, or moves that affect lithium, nickel, or copper, could have major ripple effects around the world for climate technology, because batteries are key not only for electric vehicles, but increasingly for our power grids. While it’s clear that tensions are escalating, it’s still unclear what’s going to happen next. The vibes, at best, are uncertain, and this sort of uncertainty is exactly why so many folks in technology are so focused on how to diversify global supply chains. Otherwise, we may find out just how tangled those supply chains really are, and what happens when you yank on threads that run through the center of them.

Many US midwestern grain farmers will lose money this year after reaping a bumper crop, and the outlook for their future income is bleak. [US farmers](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/us-farm-workers) harvested some of the largest corn and soybean crops in history this year. Big harvests traditionally weigh on crop prices because of plentiful supply. And those price pressures comes at a time when costs remain persistently high to grow corn and soybeans, the US’s most valuable crops. That double whammy is hurting farmers. Income will vary per farmer and per state, yet even for producers in top agricultural states such as [Illinois](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/illinois), losses could be staggering. Agricultural economists from the University of Illinois and Ohio State University [estimate](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/10/perspectives-and-strategies-for-dealing-with-low-farm-incomes-in-2014-and-beyond.html) that the average Illinois farm could make a loss of $30,000 for 2024. Their projections place farm incomes at the lowest level since the 1980s’ farm crisis led to bankruptcies. The decks are stacked against farmers for 2025 as well. Costs for seed, fertilizer and other inputs rose during 2022, fueled by the Russia-Ukraine war, which also lifted crop prices to record highs. While crop prices are down nearly 50% from those highs, in part due to a global supply glut, input prices remain elevated. Sterling Smith, an independent commodities researcher, says the national average break-even price for corn is $5.67 a bushel, and $12.72 a bushel for soybeans. Those levels are far above current Chicago Board of Trade most-active futures prices of $4.43 for corn and $9.76 for soybeans. “We’re looking at this crop, that, when it gets planted, of being a money-loser next year,” Smith says. And things could look worse for farmers if [Donald Trump](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/donaldtrump) places tariffs on imports. Trump [pledged to impose](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/27/trump-tariffs-explained) across-the-board tariffs of 20% on all US imports, with a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Recently, he advocated for 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico. Mexico, Canada and China are the three biggest importers of US agricultural goods, and agriculture is among the US’s biggest export engines. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates 16% of the US corn harvest and 40% of soybeans are exported. A trade war between those three countries could have both short-term and long-term impacts, Smith says. Until the first [trade war](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/23/us-china-escalate-trade-war-total-sum-levied-reaches-100bn) between China and the US in 2018, China was the No 1 destination for US agricultural goods. That came to a halt during the trade war, although China and the US eventually signed an agreement in 2019 to import a set amount of agricultural goods for two years. During the skirmish, [China](https://www.theguardian.com/world/china) began diversifying its suppliers, including buying from Brazil. Brazil was already a global grower and exporter of soybeans, but Chinese investment ramped up expansion, Smith says. “China is not going to put their food supply at risk,” Smith says. Brazil increased their soybean production by the equivalent of an area the size of the state of Kansas, and some estimates suggest it has as much as 70m acres (28m hectares) of unused pastureland it can plant to crops, the equivalent of two states the size of [Iowa](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/iowa). Brazil can also grow the equivalent of two crops in one year, planting soybeans in September and after that harvest, quickly plant a corn crop, he says, increasing Brazilian corn production. If Brazil continues with its aggressive expansion and the US continues its traditional output, a global situation of habitual oversupply will result, especially for soybeans, Smith says. “The bigger, long-term problem (for the US) is production gets restructured. Brazil begins to produce a lot more, and suddenly we are pushed out of the export market,” he says, “The bottom line is maybe we have to plant fewer acres.” An uptick in November’s export sales tracked by USDA suggests importers were stockpiling crops ahead of Trump’s inauguration, while taking advantage of low prices. Tanner Ehmke, lead economist for grains and oilseeds in CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, an agricultural bank, says after this recent flurry of business, the future for US exports for the coming months is uncertain. “Where do we go from here? We have record supply coming from South America and at a time when other countries … could be looking for alternatives from the US in the event of a trade war,” he says. [ ‘The dead zone is real’: why US farmers are embracing wildflowers ](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/26/us-farmers-embracing-wildflowers-prairie-strips-erosion-pollinators) With a poor economic outlook, farmers will scrutinize their budgets ahead of spring planting. Ehmke says to pinch pennies they may in part switch to generic brands for seed and fertilizer and may forgo buying new machinery. That could have ramifications on publicly traded agriculture companies such as tractor company John Deere, seed company Corteva or fertilizer companies such as Nutrien, which are some of the largest by market capitalization. Farmers will likely endure operational losses, but a 1980s-style farm crisis is not likely in the offing. Then, over-leverage on land bankrupted many farmers, but the University of [Illinois](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/illinois) and Ohio State agricultural economists say the difference now is most farmers built financial reserves when incomes were at record levels in 2021 and 2022. Ehmke agrees. “We’re a long way from an industry-wide crisis,” he says.