There’s a whip-smart 10-year-old girl in Gaza who speaks good English, displays a radiant smile and seemed to have a bright future. The daughter of an X-ray technician, she had been accepted to an international exchange program and was supposed to be leaving soon. Instead, she’s lying in a hospital bed with a badly infected wound in her thigh from a bomb blast. A photo shows a football-size open wound, with a chunk of her femur missing. “She was supposed to be in Japan,” said Dr. Samer Attar, an orthopedic surgeon who cared for the girl and told me about her. “Now she’s lying in bed deciding whether to have her leg removed.” I’ve known Dr. Attar for a decade, ever since he volunteered to work in secret hospitals in Aleppo, Syria, to save victims of Russian bombings. A professor at Northwestern University School of Medicine, [he has worked in war zones](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/20/opinion/international-world/syria-ukraine-doctor-volunteer.html) and crisis areas around the world, including Ukraine and Iraq — and recently, at hospitals in Gaza, through the medical volunteer organizations [Rahma Worldwide](https://rahmaww.org/) and [IDEALS](https://www.ideals.org.uk/aboutus.html). Dr. Attar said the girl needed an amputation at the hip to save her life. Her dad, struggling to come to terms with how his and his daughter’s lives have collapsed, is resisting for now. Over the years, I’ve covered many bloody wars and written scathingly about how governments in [Russia](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/opinion/ukraine-russia-war.html), [Sudan](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/21/opinion/sunday/nicholas-kristof-a-rain-of-bombs-in-the-nuba-mountains.html) and [Syria](https://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/18/opinion/sunday/kristof-Grandma-Faces-Down-War-in-Syria.html) recklessly bombed civilians. This time, it’s different: My government is on the side engaged in what President Biden has referred to as “[indiscriminate bombing](https://apnews.com/article/biden-israel-hamas-oct-7-44c4229d4c1270d9cfa484b664a22071).” This is not the same as deliberately targeting civilians, as those other countries did — but this time, as a taxpayer, I’m helping to pay for the bombs. Gaza is also different from Syria and Ukraine, of course, in that Israel did not start this war. Instead, Israel was brutally attacked by Hamas in a rampage of murder, torture and rape. Any government would have struck back, and Hamas maximized the suffering of civilians by using them as human shields. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F02%2F03%2Fopinion%2Fgaza-israel-war-children.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F02%2F03%2Fopinion%2Fgaza-israel-war-children.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F02%2F03%2Fopinion%2Fgaza-israel-war-children.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F02%2F03%2Fopinion%2Fgaza-israel-war-children.html).

In the past few months, deep in the forbidding deserts of central Syria, Russian forces have quietly joined the Syrian military in intensifying attacks against Islamic State strongholds, including bombing what local news reports called the dens and caves where the extremist fighters hide. While the world was focused on the conflicts in [Ukraine](https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/ukraine-russia) and [Gaza](https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/israel-hamas-gaza), this type of skirmishing has been simmering for years in Syria, and the Islamic State has long threatened to strike Russia directly for shoring up the regime of its sworn enemy, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. That moment appeared to have come on Friday night with the bloody [assault on a Moscow concert hall](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/23/world/europe/moscow-concert-hall-attack-what-we-know.html) that left more than 130 people dead. [“The fiercest in years,”](https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/moscow-russia-shooting-03-23-24/index.html) said a statement of responsibility issued on Saturday by [a branch of the Islamic State](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/22/us/politics/isis-k-moscow-attack.html) via its news agency, referring to the long history of brutal terrorist attacks pitting jihadist forces against Moscow. “They have framed this attack as coming in the context of the normal, ongoing war between ISIS and the anti-Islamic countries,” said Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based expert on Russian foreign and security policy at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. “This seems to be within the overarching theme of Russia in Afghanistan, Russia in Chechnya, Russia in Syria.” President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, right, meeting with the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, in Moscow last year.Credit...Vladimir Gerdo/Sputnik, via EPA-EFE, via Shutterstock In his brief [remarks](http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73703) on Saturday, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia did not mention the claim from the Islamic State, but he did threaten to punish those responsible. “All perpetrators, organizers and commissioners of this crime will receive a just and inevitable punishment,” Mr. Putin said. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F03%2F24%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussia-extremism-isis-syria.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F03%2F24%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussia-extremism-isis-syria.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F03%2F24%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussia-extremism-isis-syria.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F03%2F24%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Frussia-extremism-isis-syria.html).

/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73251426/GettyImages_2123635307.0.jpg) Iranian protesters burn US flags during a protest gathering to condemn the Israeli airstrike against the Iranian consulate in Syria, at Palestine Square in Tehran, Iran, on April 1, 2024 Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images Even as the fighting has raged in [Gaza](https://www.vox.com/2018/11/20/18080046/gaza-palestine-israel), a question has hung over the war: Would it escalate into a wider regional conflict involving [Iran](https://www.vox.com/iran), its various proxy groups, and perhaps even the US military? Nearly six months after October 7, it’s a mixed picture. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have played a much larger role in the conflict than [most observers expected](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/24010092/houthis-red-sea-shipping-yemen-israel-gaza), up to the point of meaningfully disrupting international shipping. But early fears that a full-scale war with Lebanon-based Hezbollah would break out on [Israel](https://www.vox.com/israel)’s “northern front” or that the Iranian government itself would get directly involved haven’t materialized. Nonetheless, Monday marked a major step up the escalator ladder. Warplanes, [presumably Israeli](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israeli-airstrike-destroys-irans-consulate-in-damascus-occupants-killed-or-wounded-syria-says), carried out an airstrike in Damascus, Syria, which [killed a senior Iranian general](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-bombs-iran-embassy-syria-iranian-commanders-among-dead-2024-04-01/), Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was deeply involved in his government’s activities in Syria and Lebanon. He is the highest-ranking Iranian military officer killed by enemy fire since Gen. Qassem Soleimani was killed by a US drone strike in 2020. Per its general practice with strikes in Syria, Israel has not officially acknowledged the attack, but four Israeli officials, speaking anonymously, [confirmed their involvement](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/world/middleeast/iran-commanders-killed-syria-israel.html) to the New York Times. [Iran claims](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/01/iranian-general-israel-airstrike-assassination) that the building that was struck was a consulate facility that was also used as its ambassador’s residence, but the anonymous Israeli officials denied that it had diplomatic status. Iran’s President, Ebrahim Raisi, [vowed](https://www.ft.com/content/eec24104-1917-4d33-a4e1-263334c93791) that the strike “would not go unpunished,” and Iran-backed Hezbollah has vowed retaliation. US officials claim to have had [no advanced knowledge or involvement](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/02/iran-embassy-syria-israel-strike-biden) in the strike — according to [some reports,](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-was-not-alerted-about-strike-irans-damascus-mission-us-officials-2024-04-02/#:~:text=%22We%20were%20not%20notified%20by,was%20not%20behind%20the%20strike.) they were told only generally that there would be upcoming activity in Syria — but Iranian officials [nonetheless say](https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-02-24/h_aac727042409eb6038dc29e9bdcb3282) they are holding the US responsible. Iran’s response may not be immediate, but the strike will nonetheless contribute to regional tensions that were already at the boiling point — and there’s a good chance American troops in the Middle East may be in the firing line. ### Iran’s man in Damascus Zahedi was a significant figure in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its efforts to project power throughout the region. At one point, he commanded the IRGC’s air force, but he’s better known for his work as a liaison to both Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, which is allied with Iran. He was the only non-Lebanese citizen to sit on Hezbollah’s Shura Council, the group’s main decision-making body. The [strike also killed six other senior leaders](https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/92098) of the Quds Force — the branch of the IRGC responsible for operations outside Iran — including Zahedi’s chief of staff and the commander for [Palestine](https://www.vox.com/palestine). As such, Israel not only severed a key link between Tehran and its foreign proxies, but also removed several of the men who might have been in line to replace him. It’s a significant hit to the IRGC’s operations, but how much of a setback is it, really? [Suzanne Maloney](https://www.brookings.edu/people/suzanne-maloney/), an expert on Iran and director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, pointed out that many expected Iran’s network to take a blow after Soleimani was killed. Instead, “it’s arguable that today, Iran’s coordination of its various proxy militias in the Middle East is stronger than it was even in Soleimani’s heyday,” Maloney told Vox. “Killing influential figures in Iran’s military establishment doesn’t necessarily produce the corresponding desired impact of degrading Iran’s capabilities in the region. In some respects, it may only harden Iran’s commitment and that of the various proxies.” ### How will Tehran respond? Whatever the operational impact, Iran will have to respond somehow, but it may be the US rather than Israel that bears the brunt of it. [Charles Lister](https://www.mei.edu/profile/charles-lister), director of the Syria and counterterrorism programs at the Middle East Institute, told Vox that “the most predictable option will be to lift the freeze on proxy attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq. Basically, our troops in Iraq and Syria are seen by Iran as soft targets, but also targets that can indirectly place significant pressure on the Israelis.” In the weeks following the [Hamas](https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/10/10/23911661/hamas-israel-war-gaza-palestine-explainer) attacks on October 7 and in response to Israel’s war in Gaza, Iran-backed militias carried out [dozens of rocket and drone strikes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-backed-attacks-us-troops-middle-east-since-oct-7-2024-01-28/) against US troops in the region. These culminated in a strike on [January 29 that killed three US soldiers](https://www.vox.com/2024/1/29/24055046/jordan-drone-strike-troop-deaths-proliferation) at a base in Jordan. While the US response to the earlier strikes had been limited, after the deaths it responded much more aggressively [with a strike in Baghdad](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/sound-loud-blasts-heard-iraqs-baghdad-reuters-witness-2024-02-07/#:~:text=%22(U.S.)%20forces%20conducted%20a,statement%20from%20the%20military%20said.) that killed the leader of Kataib Hezbollah, the militia blamed for the Jordan attack. Since then, Iran’s [proxies have dramatically scaled](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/world/middleeast/us-iran-militias.html) back their efforts, reportedly at Tehran’s request. That may now be changing. Shortly after the Damascus strike, [US forces shot down](https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1775140193164460140) a drone in the vicinity of the US garrison in al-Tanf, Syria, though it’s not clear if the drone was actually targeting the base. If it was, it would have been the first attack on US troops in the country in two months. Even before Monday, there were signs that Iran’s proxies were getting bolder in terms of attacking Israel itself. In the days before the bombing in Damascus, Iran-backed militias in Iraq [took credit for two strikes on Israel](https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-794673) — one on the southern port city of Eilat and one on a Christian village in Galilee. These attacks caused only light damage and no injuries. “The only thing that the Iranians haven’t yet done, which they could do but would be bold, would be to launch missiles from Iran itself at Israel,” said Lister. Though Iran’s proxies — most notably Hezbollah — have directly attacked Israeli soil and Iran has [launched missiles](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guards-say-they-have-attacked-espionage-centers-iraqs-erbil-2024-01-15/) at what it says was an Israeli intelligence facility in Iraq, it has also [made very clear](https://www.timesofisrael.com/khamenei-reportedly-told-hamas-chief-iran-will-not-directly-enter-war/) it has no desire for a direct shooting war with Israel, which it is in no position to win and could be devastating for its own regime and population. Maloney suspects this calculation has not changed, even after Zahedi’s killing. “Iran is prepared to fight Israel to the last Palestinian or the last Lebanese, but there would be a significant risk for them to try to mobilize any military response that can be directly attributable to them,” she said. “They’ve made an art form of avoiding direct war with Israel.” ### Washington’s dilemma Israel has been [periodically bombing targets](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/israeli-warplanes-strike-inside-syria-time-year/story?id=20746782) linked to Iran and Hezbollah in Syria for more than a decade to keep them from gaining a military foothold on its border. It has done this with the [tacit acceptance of Russia](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/world/middleeast/russia-syria-israel-ukraine.html), even though Moscow backs the Assad regime and maintains its air defense systems. But Israel also almost never publicly discusses these operations. “Israel wants to be able to conduct these operations without necessarily rubbing it in the nose of the Syrian government or the Russians or others,” [Brian Finucane](https://www.crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/people/brian-finucane), a former State Department legal adviser now with the International Crisis Group, told Vox. “But that’s in tension with its obligations under international law, including its obligations under the UN Charter.” That’s because [the charter prohibits](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text) the use of force against neighboring states except in cases of self-defense. Normally, Israel would be required to present its case to the UN for an attack against the territory of Syria and Iranian military officials was justified. The [Trump administration](https://www.vox.com/trump-administration) at least [made an attempt to do this](https://www.justsecurity.org/68008/u-s-legal-defense-of-the-soleimani-strike-at-the-united-nations-a-critical-assessment/) after the Soleimani drone strike, which it argued was a response to an escalating series of attacks on US troops by Iranian militias, though many legal scholars were not convinced. Israel is unlikely to even try. Given that the attack was presumably carried out by US-supplied fighter jets — F-35s [according to Iranian officials](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68708923) — this has implications for the US as well. “As a matter of US law, the [Arms Export Control Act](https://samm.dsca.mil/glossary/arms-export-control-act-aeca#:~:text=Arms%20Export%20Control%20Act%20(AECA,%2C%20defense%20services%2C%20and%20training.) establishes an exhaustive list of purposes for which US arms may be transferred, with “legitimate self-defense” being the most pertinent,” said Finucane. A [national security](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2024/02/08/national-security-memorandum-on-safeguards-and-accountability-with-respect-to-transferred-defense-articles-and-defense-services/) memorandum issued by the [Biden administration](https://www.vox.com/joe-biden) in February also requires the secretary of state to obtain “credible and reliable” assurances that US-supplied weapons are being used in accordance with international law. “The US government needs to assess whether the strike was a prohibited use of force or lawful self-defense,” Finucane said. In the past, Israeli military actions like these have caused at least temporary ruptures in the US-Israel relationship. When Israel in 1981 [bombed a nuclear reactor](https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/iraq-nuclear-vault/2021-06-07/osirak-israels-strike-iraqs-nuclear-reactor-40-years-later) in Iraq with US-supplied aircraft, it took the incoming Reagan administration by surprise. The administration responded by backing a [UN Security Council Resolution](http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/doc/487) condemning the attack. It also temporarily suspended the sale of F-16 fighter jets. But in the current context, the event is likely to be just one more incident in a rapidly expanding conflict. It arguably [wasn’t even the Israeli airstrike that garnered](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/4/2/24119339/world-central-kitchen-israel-gaza-idf-killed-andres-wck) the most international attention yesterday — that would be a strike in Gaza that killed several international aid workers from the charity World Central Kitchen. For the moment at least, the Biden administration still looks set to approve [several major new weapons sales to Israel](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/01/us-new-fighter-jets-missiles-israel-00149976#:~:text=The%20Biden%20administration%20is%20weighing,person%20familiar%20with%20the%20discussions.) including fighter jets and air-to-air missiles, even as criticism of the civilian toll in Gaza continues to grow. As for the long-term impact, the attack likely won’t turn the war in Gaza into a full-blown regional war overnight. But it’s another escalation in a region that can only bear so much. “Iran is nothing if not excellent at assessing risk ladders and escalation ladders,” said Lister. What we don’t know is just how high that ladder goes.

At least seven children were killed after a roadside bomb detonated in south-western Syria, in an area where dozens of incidents have already claimed about 100 lives in 2024, state media and a war monitor reported. It remains unclear who planted the bomb in the northern countryside of conflict-stricken Daraa province, which lies between [Jordan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/jordan) and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Russian-backed Syrian government forces and their allies captured the city and province of Daraa from opposition forces in 2018. [ Eight killed by car bomb in northern Syria, war monitor says ](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/31/killed-car-bomb-northern-syria-war-monitor-azaz) Syrian state news agency Sana, citing an unnamed police official in Daraa, blamed militant groups, which are still active in the area.But the UK-based war monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights accused a pro-government militia of planting the bomb in an assassination attempt, without giving further details. It says at least eight children were killed.Sana reported two other injuries in the explosion.Daraa city was known as the cradle of the Syrian uprising in 2011 that spiralled into an all-out war, now in its 14th year.In 2018, after Daraa was retaken by the government and its allies, Moscow mediated a reconciliation agreement with rebel groups which left them in charge of security in some areas, under Russian supervision. The unique reconciliation effort was a way for Moscow to alleviate concerns from [Israel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/israel) of Iran-backed militias approaching its borders and Jordan, which has a key border crossing nearby. However, an armed insurgency has continued. The observatory said the bombing is the 83rd security incident in Daraa it has documented in 2024 so far, which has led to the deaths of 100 people.

Joe Biden has vowed that US commitment to defend Israel against Iran was “ironclad” as concerns rose in Washington that a “significant” Iranian strike could happen within days, in retaliation for [the bombing of an Iranian consular building in Damascus](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/01/israeli-airstrike-on-iranian-consulate-in-damascus-kills-irgc-commander). US and allied officials fear that a strike is imminent and could come in the form of a direct missile launch from Iran, rather than an attack through a proxy like [Hezbollah](https://www.theguardian.com/world/hezbollah) in Lebanon. Israel has vowed to respond in kind to such a direct strike, raising the prospect of a regional war, which US officials now believe is more likely than at any point since the beginning of the Gaza conflict on 7 October. Biden’s pledge of support to [Israel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/israel) at the White House, intended as a deterrent, came a few hours after Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, repeated a threat to strike back against Israel over the Damascus bombing that killed 12 people, including Gen Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior figure in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and six other guard members. “When they attacked our consulate area, it was like they attacked our territory,” Khamenei said, in remarks broadcast by Iranian state TV. “The evil regime must be punished, and it will be punished.” Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, responded in a post on the X social media platform, vowing that: “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran.” Israel has not formally taken responsibility for the 1 April bombing, but Israeli and US officials have made clear it carried out the strike. Israel and Iran have been trading blows in Lebanon and Syria for months, but [Biden administration](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/biden-administration) officials fear that the 1 April Damascus bombing on an Iranian diplomatic building, which Tehran considers its own territory, has significantly raised the threat of the Gaza war widening into a broader conflict. Since the Damascus bombing, Tehran has sent Washington messages attributing ultimate blame for the attack on the US and warning the US to stay out of its confrontation with Israel. Biden’s pledge to Israel on the White House lawn, in a joint appearance with the Japanese prime minister, Fumio Kishida, appeared to be a response to that warning, insisting the US would not stay on the sidelines. “We also want to address the Iranian threat to launch a significant – they’re threatening to launch a significant attack in Israel,” Biden said. “As I told Prime Minister Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad. Let me say it again, ironclad. We’re gonna do all we can to protect Israel’s security.” The Biden administration is seeking to head off a direct Iranian attack by messaging that Tehran cannot assume that US forces in the region, reinforced significantly since the start of the Gaza war, would stay out of a conflict with Israel. “We’ve been clear that we do not want this conflict to escalate or spread further in the region. We’ll continue to undertake diplomatic efforts to ensure that remains the case,” the spokesperson said. “We also retain a military presence in the region to deter those who seek to take advantage of the conflict.” Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat and adviser to prime ministers Ehud Barak and Shimon Peres, said: “The prevailing conventional wisdom is that because the attack in Damascus was directly against Iran, then that means that Iran will have to respond to retaliate directly, rather than via a proxy. “From what I’m hearing here, the most telling sign is that Khamenei has mentioned the need to retaliate twice in the last week in his sermons or whatever,” Pinkas said. “Usually, they don’t do that. Usually they are much more opaque and only commit to a response one day at the right moment and in the right place.” Among the possible targets are Israeli embassies around the world, and they have been taking extra security precautions in the wake of the Damascus bombing, but US officials also believe that a direct strike on military or government targets on Israeli territory is also a significant possibility. The US and Israeli militaries and intelligence agencies are in constant contact about the threat. [Axios reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/10/israel-us-iran-defense-coordination-threats) that the head of US Central Command, Gen Erik Kurilla, is due in Israel on Thursday to discuss coordination with his Israeli counterparts and the defence minister, Yoav Gallant. The ability of the Biden administration to rein in an Israeli response to an Iranian attack would very much depend on the specifics. If Iranian retaliation comes in the form of an assault on an Israeli embassy, or if an incoming Iranian missile or drone is intercepted, it may be possible to prevent escalation, officials said, but if an Iranian strike caused multiple casualties inside Israel, it would be very much harder.

Reuters People are now fleeing on foot into Syria after an Israeli strike created a huge crater in the road An Israeli air strike has hit near the main border crossing point for people fleeing the escalating bombing and ground campaign in Lebanon for neighbouring Syria. Israel's military said it had hit Hezbollah targets near the Masnaa crossing, and earlier claimed the group was using it to smuggle weapons into Lebanon. The strike on Friday destroyed a section of the road and effectively cut off vehicle access. People are still able to make the journey on foot, with pictures showing families clambering over rubble and scrambling through the four-metre crater in the road to get out of the country. More than 300,000 people have left Lebanon for Syria in the past 10 days to flee the bombing, according to Lebanese government figures. The strike on Friday hit the road 700m from the checkpoint on the Lebanese side, and around 5km (3.1 miles) from the border itself. Aid workers said the destruction of the road near Masnaa crossing hinders both the movement of people and also food and humanitarian supplies. * [BBC Verify: A closer look at the crater damage near Syria’s border crossing](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39l7lv9pevt?post=asset%3A2c290de3-3f42-4599-9a71-baec5bfd467a#post) "It will mean that goods which would normally come overland through that crossing - the cheapest, most effective way to bring commodities into that country - will also not be able to be received here," Matthew Hollingworth, the director of the UN's World Food programme, told the BBC. Reuters Despite the strike people were still on the move on Friday to flee Lebanon Video shows huge crater left by strike on key route out of Lebanon Reuters The strike created a four-metre crater in the middle of the road, cutting off vehicle access Mr Hollingworth stressed that it was essential for other routes leading out of Lebanon - particularly those in the north - to remain unhindered. "We really would press that they remain open because they will be critical for people to leave, and also for humanitarian commodities to come in," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. The Masnaa crossing in Lebanon's east had been the main path for people to move into Syria, and then onto Jordan and the Gulf States, while in Lebanon the road had also connected west to the capital Beirut on the coast, which has been heavily bombed in recent days. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Friday said it had targeted a site at the border crossing where "weapons were transferred to Hezbollah", and also a 3.5km underground tunnel between Lebanon and Syria, the location of which was not specified. In a statement issued before the strike, the IDF said the crossing had become the "primary border crossing for Hezbollah's weapons transfers" and accused the group of concealing "smuggling activity among civilian trucks and vehicles". It called on Lebanon to thoroughly inspect trucks. Many people moving east are Syrian nationals living in Lebanon, who have headed back to their own country to escape Israel's bombardments. [The BBC spoke to one woman in Beirut](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39l7lv9pevt?post=asset%3Afa695828-f196-454e-a5ec-a1d358e9bcbb#post), who had sent her son back to Syria this week because the capital was too dangerous. "I found a lot of people from our neighbourhood heading for Syria, so I sent him with them," she said. Syria's government said on Sunday that for the next week people crossing the border would no longer have to pay $100 to enter the country.  On Friday, [strikes also hit near Lebanon's only commercial airport](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c17lpydd842o), the Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport. The airport borders the suburb of Dahieh, Hezbollah's stronghold in the city, and a continued target of Israeli air strikes. Major strikes there one week ago killed the long-time leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. Reports indicated that the new strikes on Friday morning were aimed at the group's new leadership, including a potential new overall leader, Hashem Safieddine. Lebanon's public health ministry said 37 people had been killed in ground and air attacks on Thursday while 151 others had been wounded. More than 2,000 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli air strikes since fighting began in October 2023, the Lebanese health ministry says. Israeli forces on Friday also told residents of another two dozen towns and villages in the South, including the regional capital city of Nabatieh, to leave immediately for their safety. The new order applies to communities further inland, north of the Litani river, about 30km from the border with Israel. The river is a crucial marker as Israel has previously demanded that Hezbollah withdraw to the Litani, as per the UN Security Council resolution that ended their last war in 2006. But there are concerns in Lebanon that Israel will seek to occupy part of the country's south again.

When Joe Biden last week said that his administration has been “[discussing](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/03/biden-says-us-discussing-possible-israeli-plans-to-attack-irans-oil-industry)” possible Israeli plans to attack Iran’s oil industry in retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack, it left the world stunned. Notably because Mr Biden didn’t reject these plans outright, in the way that he had the day before regarding a possible strike on [Iran’s nuclear sites](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-says-he-does-not-support-attack-irans-nuclear-sites-2024-10-02/). Oil prices jumped 10%, even though the US president walked back the remark the next day. The historian AJP Taylor [wrote](https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1965/05/06/the-history-of-a-j-p-taylor/) that “wars are much like road accidents” in that they had profound consequences but did not necessarily have equally profound causes. Targeted Israeli strikes on refinery complexes may not do much more than win domestic applause. Bombing Kharg Island, the heart of Iran’s oil-export operations, would cripple its economy. However, such a move might also drive up global oil prices and have an impact on American consumers just weeks before a crucial election. Washington’s sanctions have failed to stymie Iran’s oil exports, largely because [China](https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-oil-sanctions-china/32930848.html) has been willing to defy Washington. With Beijing purchasing about 90% of Iran’s crude oil, an Israeli attack on Iranian facilities would have uncertain consequences. The real risk lies in escalation, potentially drawing China into the conflict and reshaping Middle Eastern dynamics for years. The outcome of such a conflict is hard to foresee. However, the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq serves as a reminder that destabilising actions often invite outside powers to intervene in the Middle East. Last week, Russia [conducted](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-823460#google_vignette) airstrikes in Syria against what it said were militant groups in an area under US control. The possibility of Russian military forces and American troops colliding in Syria has been a persistent worry as the [adversaries](https://thewarhorse.org/special-forces-soldiers-reveal-first-details-of-battle-with-russian-mercenaries-in-syria/) took opposing sides in the country’s civil war. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has only sharpened the mutual antagonism. Ultimately, the impact of an Israeli attack will hinge on Iran’s response and how major global oil producers react to the likely oil shock. China could offset the loss of its [1.5m barrels](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12267) per day of Iranian oil by turning to Saudi Arabia, which has ample spare production capacity. However, Riyadh, having recently restored ties with Tehran, is cautious about being drawn into a conflict between Israel and Iran. The desert kingdom sought to improve relations with Tehran after its costly war with the Houthis triggered a [devastating](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-sending-troops-saudi-arabia-shows-short-range-air-defenses-ncna1057461) Iranian drone attack on its oil facilities. The attack, which bypassed US Patriot missile defences, temporarily cut Riyadh’s oil production in half. An all-out war between Iran and Israel could lead to the closure of the [strait of Hormuz](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61002), the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint, through which a quarter of all tanker-shipped crude is moved. This would be a hammer blow to the global economy. But if Iran were backed into a corner with its export capacity reduced to a smoking ruin, it might close the strait in an act of [desperation](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/03/oil-markets-israel-iran-middle-east-war-conflict/). Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reportedly refused to open their airspace to Israeli and US aircraft involved in bombing Iran last April. Both would no doubt think it prudent to do so again. War is not an acceptable and tolerable way of solving international disputes. It would be better to silence the guns in the region’s battle zones and resort to diplomacy. If leaders collectively embraced this view, the Middle East – and the world – would undoubtedly be a safer and more stable place. * _**Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our [letters](https://www.theguardian.com/tone/letters) section, please [click here](mailto:[email protected]?body=Please%20include%20your%20name,%20full%20postal%20address%20and%20phone%20number%20with%20your%20letter%20below.%20Letters%20are%20usually%20published%20with%20the%20author%27s%20name%20and%20city/town/village.%20The%20rest%20of%20the%20information%20is%20for%20verification%20only%20and%20to%20contact%20you%20where%20necessary.).**_

Fadi was praying on Wednesday afternoon when the ground began to shake. At first he thought it was an earthquake, but then he saw a plume of smoke rising from his house. He rushed home and began to dig. One by one, he pulled family members from the rubble, all eight of them killed in an Israeli airstrike. “I pulled my brother out of the rubble in pieces. I found his four-year-old daughter’s hand in the branches of an olive tree 20 metres away,” he said. The owner of a gaming cafe in Bednayel, a town on the outskirts of the historic eastern Lebanese city of Baalbek, he asked only to be identified by his first name for fear of being targeted by the Israeli drones that circled overhead. The day before, Fadi’s brother Ali had asked him if his family could stay at his house since they lived next to a petrol station and he feared it would blow up in the event of an Israeli bombing; a local family had burned to death in an earlier Israeli bombing and Ali did not want his wife and two children to suffer the same fate. All four were killed on Wednesday, along with Ali’s wife’s parents and two of her sisters. Five hours before Fadi’s home was bombed, Israel’s military had ordered the residents of Baalbek and two nearby towns, Douris and Ain Bourday, to evacuate ahead of what it said were strikes on Hezbollah – the first time it had issued evacuation orders outside southern [Lebanon](https://www.theguardian.com/world/lebanon) and the southern suburbs of Beirut. But intense Israeli bombing had signalled that it was turning its focus to the eastern Bekaa valley two days before any evacuation orders were given. More than 60 people were killed on Monday last week in bombing across the valley, and by Friday the death toll from strikes in the region had surpassed 120. Bednayel, like most of the villages surrounding Baalbek that were struck by Israel, was not included in the evacuation orders, nor did it receive a warning before being bombed. “Israel’s goal is to get us to stop supporting Hezbollah – but we won’t. We’re proud to be here and we won’t leave,” Fadi said. He added that while his family supported Hezbollah politically, they were civilians and not a part of the organisation. He pulled a pair of baby socks out of his pocket, which belonged to his one-year-old nephew Hassan, and pointed to a pink ballet slipper in the rubble, which belonged to his niece Fatimah, to illustrate his point. Hezbollah traditionally enjoys strong support in the Bekaa valley, it being where many of its top officials originated and where training camps for the organisation’s recruits were held. However, the valley is the largest geographic area of Lebanon and encompasses towns with many different political and religious affiliations. In the city of Baalbek, the streets were deserted. Wednesday’s evacuation orders had caused panic, with tens of thousands of residents fleeing to safer areas, according to the city’s mayor, Moustapha al-Chall. At the centre of the city stood ancient ruins, including one of the world’s largest extant Roman temples, which was designated a world heritage site in 1982. The provincial governor instructed residents not to seek shelter near the ruins, as he could not guarantee they would be spared from bombing. [](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/04/israel-bombing-lebanon-baalbek-region#img-2) Destruction from an Israeli airstrike on Gouraud barracks in Baalbek, with the Roman ruins behind. Photograph: Nidal Solh/AFP/Getty Images A nearby Israeli air raid on Monday had already damaged the Gouraud barracks, a structure from the French-mandate era built near the ancient Roman complex. The weathered stones that made up one of the walls of the complex had been shattered and strewn across the city’s streets. Amir al-Nimr, a 21-year-old resident of Baalbek, was trapped under the debris on Monday after Israel dropped a bomb on his house, the same strike that damaged the barracks’ walls. He, unlike the other three members of his family who were in the house, survived the attack. But it left him with two fractured hips and burns all over his body. “There was nothing in our home from Hezbollah. We had sent our women to Syria but we couldn’t leave because we needed to protect the house from theft. I’m not upset for my family, I’m upset that I didn’t get to join them in heaven,” Nimr said, his voice breaking as he spoke from a hospital bed in Dar al-Amal hospital in Douris. His hair had been scorched from his scalp, one of his eyes was filled with blood and scabs had spread across his face like webbing where he had been burned. “From my point of view, this is a war against the Shia, you can see what regions of Lebanon they’re hitting. But no matter what happens, I won’t leave,” Nimr said. Those who stayed behind despite the intensifying bombing on Baalbek and surrounding areas spoke with a sense of defiance. But the majority of residents have already left, joining the more than 1.2 million people already displaced by Israeli bombing in Lebanon. About half of the 700 staff members at the Dar al-Amal hospital have left, displaced by fighting and fearful of an evacuation order that just barely includes the hospital. Three of its nurses were killed in Israeli strikes while off duty in the last month. “Our main threat now is manpower. Our other resources are available and we can manage it,” said Ali Allam, the hospital’s director. The hospital has received much of the injured and dead from nearby bombings, as well as patients evacuated from hospitals closer to Baalbek. Allam said that prior to last Monday, a sense of normalcy had returned to the hospital as the pace of Israeli bombing had slowed. That changed as Israel turned its sights on the Bekaa valley. “Maybe the good thing is that in the Bekaa, the houses are spread far apart. Economically, it will be more costly for them to bomb us. They wouldn’t get their money’s worth. But who could stop them if they finish in south \[Lebanon\]?” Allam said with a grim smile.

When the civil war in Syria threatened his village more than a decade ago, a farmer and his family fled to neighboring Lebanon. The farmer, Ali Kheir Khallu, 37, found work there growing oranges and bananas. Life was hard, he said, but at least he felt safe. That feeling vanished last month as [Israel ramped up its war with Hezbollah](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/04/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-lebanon.html), the powerful Lebanese militia, heavily bombing sites that it said belonged to the group. When the bombs fell near Mr. Kheir Khallu’s house, he packed up his family, left behind the new lives they had built in Lebanon and fled back to Syria, where they are now struggling to start over, yet again. “You want to make up for all that you have lost,” he said. “But you are still in shock.” As the war in Lebanon expands, more than 1.2 million people — one-fifth of the population — have [been displaced from their homes](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/16/world/middleeast/israel-lebanon-displaced-hezbollah.html), the government says. While most have sought safety in other parts of Lebanon, more than 470,000 people, mostly Syrians, have crossed into Syria in the last six weeks, aid groups say. Since Syrian rebels tried to topple the government in 2011, President Bashar al-Assad has fought to stay in power, with his forces bombing and besieging opposition communities and repeatedly using chemical weapons. The war drew in Russia, the United States, the jihadists of Islamic State and other forces, displacing about 12 million residents, or more than half the country’s population. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F11%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Flebanon-war-syrians-returning-home.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F11%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Flebanon-war-syrians-returning-home.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F11%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Flebanon-war-syrians-returning-home.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F11%2F11%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Flebanon-war-syrians-returning-home.html).

Rebel forces advanced in Syria on Sunday amid fierce fighting, capturing the airport of the major city of Aleppo and attacking the outskirts of the western city of Hama, according to local officials and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Government troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad were trying to repel them, they said. [The rebels had captured much of Aleppo](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/30/world/middleeast/syria-aleppo-rebels-control.html) a day earlier in a surprise offensive. They now [control a broad swath of land](https://www.nytimes.com/article/syria-civil-war.html) across the provinces of Hama, Idlib and Aleppo, in the west and northwest of Syria, according to information from local officials and the Observatory, a Britain-based war monitor. The New York Times also observed rebels in control of parts of Hama Province as well as neighborhoods in the east of the city of Aleppo and some of the countryside beyond it that were only days earlier held by government forces. Government troops were battling to defend the city of Hama from being overrun, the Observatory said. Syrian government warplanes were also bombing territory that was now rebel-held, causing civilian casualties, the monitor said. It said that government forces were receiving support from Russian fighter jets, which were striking targets across the countryside near Hama and Idlib province. Russia, which is allied with Mr. Assad, has repeatedly come to his aid since early in the civil war that broke out in 2011, after protests over Mr. Assad’s autocratic rule drew a swift and bloody military crackdown. A government statement said Mr. Assad had spoken to the leaders of the United Arab Emirates and Iraq on Saturday, vowing that Syria would “defeat the terrorists, regardless of the intensity of their attacks.” Syrian officials routinely refer to rebels as terrorists. The Syrian military also said in a statement on Saturday that its operation to push back the rebels was “successfully” progressing and that it would soon initiate a counterattack. It tried to discredit reports about rebel advances, saying that the armed groups were spreading “false news” to “undermine the morale of our people and our brave army.” Across the territory that had flipped back to the rebels, people could be seen tearing up Syrian government flags and pictures of Mr. Assad, including fighters and former Aleppo residents who were returning to their homes for the first time in years. Photos taken in Aleppo also showed the toppling of a statue that had apparently depicted Bassel al-Assad, the president’s elder brother. Hwaida Saad contributed reporting from Beirut, Lebanon, and Rania Khaled from Cairo.

Last week [I argued](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/26/opinion/trump-israel-iran.html) that the blows Israel inflicted on Iran and its most important proxy, Hezbollah, would have vast consequences for the military balance in the region. It has only taken a few days for those consequences to start showing up. Donald Trump reportedly wants the region’s conflicts quieted down by the time he comes to office. Hey — good luck with that. For starters, with Iran and Hezbollah weakened by Israel, the leader they were protecting most, the beleaguered Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, took a body blow in the last few days when anti-government rebels in Syria swept in from their countryside redoubts and swept out Assad’s army from virtually all of Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria. Alas, though, many of these Syrian rebels are not boy scouts — the group leading the charge, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is a former Al Qaeda affiliate — and if Assad were toppled from power in Damascus, Syria, it could draw Israel in and destabilize the whole Levant. Interestingly, Turkey, which backs some of these rebel groups and had been restraining them, may have given the green light for the attack. Turkey has long been Iran’s archrival for regional domination. At the same time, a Western intelligence source tells me, a rancorous debate is afoot within Iran’s leadership over who is responsible for letting Hezbollah drag both Iran and Hezbollah into a devastating war with Israel — on behalf of Hamas — when Israel had not even attacked Hezbollah. As a result, Hezbollah’s rocket forces, meant to deter Israel from ever bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, have now been shattered. Inside Lebanon, Hezbollah, which had become the army of the Shiites of Lebanon and imposed itself as the sacred third part of the country’s trinity — “the army, the people and the resistance” — to which every Lebanese leader had to pay homage, has dramatically lost support. Israel was so surgical in its bombing inside Lebanon, trying to hit only Hezbollah targets and pro-Hezbollah neighborhoods, that it sent the message: “If you live in places that are loyal to the Lebanese state, you are safe, but if you stay in places Hezbollah controls, you are not safe,” explained Hanin Ghaddar, an expert on Hezbollah at The Washington Institute. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F12%2F02%2Fopinion%2Ftrump-mideast-syria-conflicts.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F12%2F02%2Fopinion%2Ftrump-mideast-syria-conflicts.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F12%2F02%2Fopinion%2Ftrump-mideast-syria-conflicts.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F12%2F02%2Fopinion%2Ftrump-mideast-syria-conflicts.html).

EPA Rebels posed for photos on the highway north of Hama, home to about 1 million people Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces are reportedly engaged in fierce battles with rebels on the outskirts of the major city of Hama. A monitoring group said on Tuesday evening that the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies were “at the gates of Hama”, but on Wednesday it said the military had retaken several villages in a counter-attack backed by intense air strikes. Syrian state media also said troops had pushed back the rebels north of the city, but the rebels denied losing any ground there. Hama is 110km (70 miles) south of Aleppo, which the rebels captured last week after launching a surprise offensive from their stronghold in the north-west. The state-run Sana news agency and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based monitoring group, both reported intense fighting on Wednesday morning around Jabal Zain al-Abadin, a hill about 5km (3 miles) north-east of Hama. The SOHR said the clashes came after government forces launched a counter-attack, during which they were able to push the rebels back almost 10km from the city and recapture two villages near the hill. A spokesman for the rebel’s "Military Operations Division" accused the military of spreading rumours to raise the morale of its troops and insisted rebels were still in control of all locations they had recently taken. An affiliated news channel meanwhile said that five more villages east of Hama had been captured, as well as a base of the 25th Special Mission Forces Division.  On Tuesday, the SOHR reported that there had been “major displacement” from Hama, which is home to about 1 million people, after the rebels reached the city’s outskirts and several civilians were injured by their shellfire. Wassim, a delivery driver who lives in the city, told AFP news agency: "The sounds were really terrifying, and the continuous bombing could be clearly heard”. But he added: "I'll stay home because I have nowhere else to flee to.” The SOHR has said that more than 600 people have been killed, including 107 civilians, and tens of thousands have been displaced since the start of the rebel offensive last Wednesday. The United Nations has expressed alarm at the sudden escalation of Syria’s devastating, 13-year civil war and warned that the situation is “extremely fluid and dangerous”. “If we do not see de-escalation and a rapid move to a serious political process, involving the Syrian parties and the key international players, then I fear we will see a deepening of the crisis," special envoy Geir Pedersen told the UN Security Council on Tuesday. “Syria will be in grave danger of further division, deterioration, and destruction.” BBC Verify tracks week of rebel advances in Syria President Assad has vowed to “crush” the rebels and accused Western powers of trying to redraw the map of the region, while his key allies Russia and Iran have offered their “unconditional support”. Russian warplanes have intensified their strikes on rebel-held areas in recent days, Iran-backed militias have sent fighters to reinforce the government’s defensive lines around Hama, and Iran has said it is ready to send additional forces to Syria if asked. Turkey, which supports the Syrian opposition but has denied reports that it is involved in the HTS-led offensive, has urged Assad to engage in a political process with the opposition to bring an end to Syria’s 13-year civil war. Turkish-backed rebel factions have meanwhile capitalised on the government’s retreat in the north by launching a separate offensive on a pocket of territory near Aleppo that was controlled by a Kurdish-led militia alliance, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). More than half a million people have been killed since the civil war erupted in 2011 after Assad’s government cracked down violently on peaceful pro-democracy protests. Before the start of the rebel offensive, the government had regained control of Syria’s main cities with the help of Russia, Iran and Iran-backed militias. However, large parts of the country remained out of its control. The rebels’ last stronghold was in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, which border Turkey and where more than four million people were living, many of them displaced from government-held areas. The enclave was dominated by HTS, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN, US, Turkey and other countries because it was al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria until it formally broke ties in 2016. A number of allied rebel factions and jihadist groups were also based there, along with Turkish-backed SNA factions and Turkish forces. In 2020, Turkey and Russia brokered a ceasefire to halt a push by the government to retake the region. That led to an extended lull in violence, but sporadic clashes, air strikes and shelling continued. AFP Smoke rises from the town of Suran, between Aleppo and Hama, on Tuesday HTS and its allies said last Wednesday that they had launched an offensive to “deter aggression”, accusing the government and allied Iran-backed militias of escalating attacks on civilians in the north-west. But it came at a time when the government’s allies were preoccupied with other conflicts. The Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, which was crucial in helping push back rebels in the early years of the war, has suffered recently from Israel’s offensive in Lebanon. Israeli strikes have also eliminated Iranian military commanders in Syria and degraded supply lines to pro-government militias there. Russia has also been also distracted by the war in Ukraine. Mr Pedersen estimated that the rebels now had de facto control over territory containing an estimated 7 million people, including 2 million in Aleppo city. [ Statue of Syrian president's brother is torn down in Aleppo ----------------------------------------------------------- ](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cpdvddy27w9o)

Show key events only Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature Thousands of people fled the central **Syrian** city of **Homs** overnight and into Friday morning, a war monitor and residents said, as rebel forces sought to push their lightning offensive against government forces farther south. They have already captured the key cities of **Aleppo** in the north and **Hama** in the centre, dealing successive devastating blows to president **Bashar al-Assad**, nearly 14 years after protests against him erupted across Syria. The **Syrian Observatory for Human Rights**, a **UK**\-based war monitor, said thousands of people had begun fleeing on Thursday night towards Syria’s western coastal regions, a stronghold of the government. According to Reuters, a resident of the coastal area said thousands of people had begun arriving there from Homs, fearing the rebels’ fast-paced advance.  Syrian rebels celebrate capture of second major city after Assad regime forces withdraw – video On Friday morning, **Israeli** airstrikes hit two border crossings between **Lebanon** and Syria, Lebanon’s transport minister, **Ali Hamieh**, said. The Syrian state news agency, Sana, said the **Arida border crossing** with Lebanon was out of service due to the attack. The Israeli military said it had attacked weapons transfer hubs and infrastructure overnight on the Syrian side of the Lebanese border, saying these routes had been used by the Lebanese armed group **Hezbollah** to smuggle weapons. **Russian** bombing overnight also destroyed the **Rustan Bridge** along the key **M5 highway**, to prevent rebels from using this main route to Homs city, a Syrian army officer told Reuters. “There were at least eight strikes on the bridge,” he added. Government forces were working to strengthen positions around Homs city with fresh reinforcements, he said. Rebels led by the Islamist faction **Hayat Tahrir al-Sham** had pledged to move on to the central city of Homs, a crossroads city that links the capital **Damascus** to the north and Assad’s heartland along the coast. “Your time has come,” said a rebel operations room in an online post, calling on Homs residents to rise up in revolution. More on that in a moment, but first, here are some of the other latest developments: * **The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on a network of sources in Syria, said 826 people, mostly combatants but also including 111 civilians, have been killed in the country since the violence erupted last week.** It marks the most intense fighting since 2020 in the civil war sparked by the repression of pro-democracy protests in 2011. * **Iran says it conducted a successful space launch, the latest for its program the west alleges improves Tehran’s ballistic missile programme.** Iran conducted the launch using its Simorgh programme, a satellite-carrying rocket that had seen a series of failed launches. The launch took place at Iran’s Imam Khomeini Spaceport in rural Semnan province. There was no immediate independent confirmation Friday the launch was successful. * **Iraqi foreign minister, Fuad Hussein, will meet his Syrian and Iranian counterparts on Friday to discuss the situation in Syria**, the Iraqi state news agency said on Thursday. * **A Hamas official said on Thursday that international mediators have resumed negotiating with the militant group and Israel over a ceasefire in Gaza**, and that he was hopeful a deal to end the 14-month war was within reach. Ceasefire negotiations were halted last month when Qatar suspended talks with mediators from Egypt and the US because of frustration over a lack of progress between Israel and Hamas. * **Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has said that he plans to hold talks on Friday with Turkish and Iranian officials on the situation in Syria.** On Thursday, Lavrov said Moscow was “very much concerned” with a recent escalation of violence in Syria. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752a4b98f08d291b2199891#block-6752a4b98f08d291b2199891) Show key events only Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature **Syrian** troops and their **Iran**\-backed allies “suddenly” pulled out of eastern **Deir Ezzor** city and its surroundings on Friday, a war monitor said, as a rebel offensive dealt the government a series of blows, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). “Syrian regime forces and commanders of Iran-backed allied groups suddenly withdrew from Deir Ezzor city and its countryside with columns of soldiers heading towards central Syria,” **Rami Abdel Rahman**, who heads the **Syrian Observatory for Human Rights** war monitor, told AFP. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752e2998f0896ed0c236007#block-6752e2998f0896ed0c236007) **Turkish** president **Recep Tayyip Erdoğan** said on Friday that he hopes **Syrian** rebels will continue their advances against president **Bashar al-Assad**’s forces in [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria), reports Reuters. Speaking to reporters after Friday prayers, Erdoğan said he had still not received a positive response from Assad to a call he made earlier this year to meet and normalise ties. “The advances of the opposition are continuing as of now … Our hope is that this walk in Syria continues without any issues,” he said. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752deae8f08d291b2199ac3#block-6752deae8f08d291b2199ac3) **Turkey** confirmed on Friday that it would meet **Russian** and **Iranian** foreign ministers for talks on the escalating civil war in **Syria**, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). The talks will take place in **Qatar** on Saturday. Turkey’s foreign minister, **Hakan Fidan**, “will meet with the Russian and Iranian ministers … for a meeting under the Astana process” on the sidelines of the **Doha** forum, a foreign ministry source told AFP. The Astana process involving the three countries was launched by **Kazakhstan** in 2017 with the aim to find a political solution to the civil war in Syria, which has flared again after a lightning offensive by Islamist-led rebels over the past week. Iranian state media had reported earlier that a meeting was expected on the forum’s sidelines between Turkey, which supports some of the rebels, and **Damascus** allies Iran and **Russia**. Qatar, which gave early support to the rebels after president **Bashar al-Assad**’s government crushed a peaceful uprising in 2011, remains a fierce critic of Assad but is calling for a negotiated end to the fighting, reports AFP. Turkey shares a border of more than 900 kilometres (560 miles) with Syria and currently is home to about three million Syrian refugees. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752d9d68f08065f386f2129#block-6752d9d68f08065f386f2129) **Israel**’s military offensive in the **Gaza Strip** has killed at least 44,612 **Palestinians** and injured 104,834 since 7 October 2023, the **Gaza health ministry** said on Friday. The toll includes 32 deaths in the previous 24 hours, according to the ministry. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and fighters. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752d65a8f08d291b2199a7d#block-6752d65a8f08d291b2199a7d) **Iran** aims to send missiles and drones to **Syria** and increase the number of its military advisers there to support president **Bashar al-Assad** in his battle against rebels, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Friday. “It is likely that Tehran will need to send military equipment, missiles and drones to Syria … Tehran has taken all necessary steps to increase number of its military advisers in Syria and deploy forces,” the official said on condition of anonymity. “Now, Tehran is providing intelligence and satellite support to Syria.” [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752d42d8f0896ed0c235f6a#block-6752d42d8f0896ed0c235f6a) The head of **US**\-backed **Syrian Kurdish** force said on Friday that **Islamic State** group had taken control over some areas in eastern **Syria**. “Due to the recent developments, there is increased movement by Islamic State mercenaries in the Syrian desert, in the south and west of Deir Al-Zor and the countryside of al-Raqqa,” **Mazloum Abdi** said in a press conference, referring to areas in the east of the country, according to Reuters. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752d08c8f0896ed0c235f21#block-6752d08c8f0896ed0c235f21) The director of north **Gaza**’s **Kamal Adwan hospital** said **Israel** conducted several strikes on Friday that hit the facility, one of the last functioning health centres in the area, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). “There was a series of airstrikes on the northern and western sides of the hospital, accompanied by intense and direct fire,” **Hossam Abu Safieh** said, adding that four staff were killed and no surgeons were left at the site. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752cb848f0896ed0c235ef0#block-6752cb848f0896ed0c235ef0) The escalation in fighting in **Syria** has displaced about 280,000 people in just over a week, the **UN** said on Friday, warning that numbers could rise to 1.5 million. “The figure we have in front of us is 280,000 people since 27 November,” **Samer AbdelJaber**, head of emergency coordination at the UN’s **World Food Programme (WFP)**, told reporters in **Geneva**. “That does not include the figure of people who fled from Lebanon during the recent escalations” in fighting there, he added. The mass displacement has happened since rebels led by **Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)** launched their lightning offensive a little more than a week ago. That occurred just as a tenuous ceasefire in neighbouring **Lebanon** took hold between **Israel** and Syrian president **Bashar al-Assad**’s ally **Hezbollah**. WFP warned that the fresh mass-displacement inside Syria, more than 13 years after the country’s civil war erupted, was “adding to years of suffering”. AbdelJaber said the WFP and other humanitarian agencies were “trying to reach the communities wherever their needs are”, and that they were working “to secure safe routes so that we can be able to move the aid and the assistance to the communities that are in need”. He also stressed the urgent need for more funding to ensure humanitarians are “ready for any scenario basically in terms of displacements that could evolve in the coming days or months”. According to AFP, AbdelJaber cautioned that “if the situation continues evolving (at the current) pace, we’re expecting collectively around 1.5 million people that will be displaced and will be requiring our support”. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752c5698f08d291b219997d#block-6752c5698f08d291b219997d) **Syria**’s army backed by warplanes, including from ally **Russia**, were targeting “terrorist vehicles and gatherings” in **Hama** province on Friday, the defence ministry said, amid a major rebel offensive, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). “Our armed forces are targeting terrorist vehicles and gatherings in the north and south of Hama province using artillery, missiles and joint Syrian-Russian warplanes,” a ministry statement said, citing a military source. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752bfe28f08065f386f2005#block-6752bfe28f08065f386f2005) Rebel military commander **Hassan Abdel Ghani** said in a statement on Telegram on Friday that “our forces continue to march steadily towards the city of Homs”, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). He said “hundreds” of fighters who had been forced to leave **Homs** years ago after the government retook it had returned “to deter Assad’s aggression against their city”. Homs was once dubbed the “capital of the revolution” because of the large-scale protests in the city when **Syria**’s uprising began in March 2011. The **UK**\-based S**yrian Observatory for Human Rights** said tens of thousands of residents were fleeing Homs on Thursday towards the coast, fearing the rebel advance ([see 7.41am GMT](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?page=with:block-6752a4b98f08d291b2199891#block-6752a4b98f08d291b2199891)). [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752bd968f08d291b2199948#block-6752bd968f08d291b2199948) The leader of an Islamist rebel alliance driving a lightning offensive in **Syria** has said the goal of the campaign is to overthrow the government of president **Bashar al-Assad**, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). “When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” **Abu Mohammed al-Jolani** told CNN in an interview published on Friday. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752b8098f0896ed0c235e46#block-6752b8098f0896ed0c235e46) **Israel**’s military said on Friday that it carried out strikes overnight targeting **Hezbollah** “weapon-smuggling routes” on the **Syria-Lebanon** border, just over a week into a fragile ceasefire in its war with the Lebanese group. Official media in both Lebanon and [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria) reported that the air raid put the **al-Arida** border crossing – already hit during the Israel-Hezbollah war – out of service. The Israeli air force “conducted strikes on weapon-smuggling routes and terror infrastructure sites located near the Syrian regime’s crossings at the Syrian-Lebanese border”, the military said in a statement that included a map identifying one of the targets as the al-Arida crossing, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). Syrian state news agency, Sana, said that “the al-Arida border crossing between Syria and Lebanon is out of service again due to an Israeli attack that targeted it” early on Friday. According to AFP, Lebanon’s official National News Agency said the strike “led to damage to infrastructure” and cut off the border road “again after the bridge was repaired” following a previous attack. Israel has struck border crossings between Syria and Lebanon numerous times, saying it aims to prevent weapons smuggling from Syria into Lebanon. The latest strike came amid mutual accusations between Israel and Hezbollah of violating the terms of a ceasefire agreement that came into effect on 27 November. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752b3ef8f08065f386f1fb5#block-6752b3ef8f08065f386f1fb5) A monitor of **Syria**’s war said rebels were just 5km (3 miles) from third city **Homs** on Friday, after controlling two strategic towns on the road linking it to **Hama**, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions have reached five kilometres from the outskirts of Homs city after controlling the towns of Rastan and Talbisseh,” said the **Syrian Observatory for Human Rights**, adding that controlling Homs would allow the rebels to “cut off the main road leading to the Syrian coast”, the stronghold of president **Bashar al-Assad**’s **Alawite** minority. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752b0498f08d291b21998e2#block-6752b0498f08d291b21998e2) Thousands of people fled the central **Syrian** city of **Homs** overnight and into Friday morning, a war monitor and residents said, as rebel forces sought to push their lightning offensive against government forces farther south. They have already captured the key cities of **Aleppo** in the north and **Hama** in the centre, dealing successive devastating blows to president **Bashar al-Assad**, nearly 14 years after protests against him erupted across Syria. The **Syrian Observatory for Human Rights**, a **UK**\-based war monitor, said thousands of people had begun fleeing on Thursday night towards Syria’s western coastal regions, a stronghold of the government. According to Reuters, a resident of the coastal area said thousands of people had begun arriving there from Homs, fearing the rebels’ fast-paced advance.  Syrian rebels celebrate capture of second major city after Assad regime forces withdraw – video On Friday morning, **Israeli** airstrikes hit two border crossings between **Lebanon** and Syria, Lebanon’s transport minister, **Ali Hamieh**, said. The Syrian state news agency, Sana, said the **Arida border crossing** with Lebanon was out of service due to the attack. The Israeli military said it had attacked weapons transfer hubs and infrastructure overnight on the Syrian side of the Lebanese border, saying these routes had been used by the Lebanese armed group **Hezbollah** to smuggle weapons. **Russian** bombing overnight also destroyed the **Rustan Bridge** along the key **M5 highway**, to prevent rebels from using this main route to Homs city, a Syrian army officer told Reuters. “There were at least eight strikes on the bridge,” he added. Government forces were working to strengthen positions around Homs city with fresh reinforcements, he said. Rebels led by the Islamist faction **Hayat Tahrir al-Sham** had pledged to move on to the central city of Homs, a crossroads city that links the capital **Damascus** to the north and Assad’s heartland along the coast. “Your time has come,” said a rebel operations room in an online post, calling on Homs residents to rise up in revolution. More on that in a moment, but first, here are some of the other latest developments: * **The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on a network of sources in Syria, said 826 people, mostly combatants but also including 111 civilians, have been killed in the country since the violence erupted last week.** It marks the most intense fighting since 2020 in the civil war sparked by the repression of pro-democracy protests in 2011. * **Iran says it conducted a successful space launch, the latest for its program the west alleges improves Tehran’s ballistic missile programme.** Iran conducted the launch using its Simorgh programme, a satellite-carrying rocket that had seen a series of failed launches. The launch took place at Iran’s Imam Khomeini Spaceport in rural Semnan province. There was no immediate independent confirmation Friday the launch was successful. * **Iraqi foreign minister, Fuad Hussein, will meet his Syrian and Iranian counterparts on Friday to discuss the situation in Syria**, the Iraqi state news agency said on Thursday. * **A Hamas official said on Thursday that international mediators have resumed negotiating with the militant group and Israel over a ceasefire in Gaza**, and that he was hopeful a deal to end the 14-month war was within reach. Ceasefire negotiations were halted last month when Qatar suspended talks with mediators from Egypt and the US because of frustration over a lack of progress between Israel and Hamas. * **Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has said that he plans to hold talks on Friday with Turkish and Iranian officials on the situation in Syria.** On Thursday, Lavrov said Moscow was “very much concerned” with a recent escalation of violence in Syria. [Share](mailto:?subject=Middle%20East%20crisis%20live:%20thousands%20flee%20Homs%20in%20central%20Syria%20as%20rebel%20forces%20push%20on&body=https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6752a4b98f08d291b2199891#block-6752a4b98f08d291b2199891)

Islamist insurgents have captured the Syrian city of Hama in a battle to seize a vital location on the road to Damascus, marking the [latest challenge to Bashar al-Assad’s control of the country.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/05/syrian-rebels-surround-strategic-city-of-hama-after-aleppo-takeover) Militants led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) entered the city from the east on Thursday after surrounding it during five days of fighting with forces loyal to Assad. Video circulating online suggested that the insurgents had captured a military airport outside Hama, and released prisoners held in a fearsome state detention facility. As night fell, militant representatives said they had “fully established control over the city of Hama,” and called on police and militias in the city to defect. “This victory will be without revenge and merciful,” said the leader of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, in a message to the people of Hama. The Syrian defence ministry initially denied that insurgents had enteredHama, calling its defensive lines “impregnable”. But as fighting intensified and drew closer to the city centre, the Syrian army said it had withdrawn, redeploying its forces “to preserve the lives of civilians and not to involve the people of Hama city in these battles”. Positioned on a highway that runs down the western side of Syria towards the capital, Damascus, Hama was the site of mass uprisings against Assad in 2011, and then fierce battles when opposition forces attempted and failed to take control of the city in the ensuing civil war. Hama is also the [site of a notorious 1982 massacre](https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/from-the-archive-blog/2011/aug/01/hama-syria-massacre-1982-archive), when forces loyal to former president Hafez al-Assad besieged the town to prevent an uprising led by Sunni Muslim opponents of his rule. The sweeping offensive led by HTS has resulted in Assad losing control of Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo, and swaths of the northwest of the country. The UN’s World Food Programme said the escalation has displaced more than 280,000 people, “adding to years of suffering.” The surge in violence has led to fears of an aid crisis, with UN secretary general Antonio Guterres speaking of an urgent need for civilian access to immediate humanitarian support, and a parish priest in Aleppo, Father Bahjat Karakach, voicing concerns that the fear of the bombing is giving way to the [“danger of hunger”](https://www.asianews.it/news-en/Famine-looms-in-wake-of-bombing%2C-warns-Aleppo%27s-parish-priest-62050.html) amid soaring food prices. Guterres urged a UN-facilitated political process to end the bloodshed, asking “all those with influence to do their part for the long-suffering people” of Syria and noting all parties had an obligation to protect civilians. On Friday, Iraqi foreign minister Fuad Hussein will meet his Syrian and Iranian counterparts in Baghdad to discuss the situation in Syria, the Iraqi state news agency reported.The move comes days after [emergency talks were held in Ankara.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/syria-crisis-summit-turkey-iran-russia) Some Iraqi fighters entered Syria early this week to support Assad, Iraqi and Syrian sources told Reuters. Iraq’s Iran-aligned Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitary coalition has mobilised along the border with Syria, saying this was purely preventive in case of spillover into Iraq. Tens of thousands of members of Assad’s Alawite minority community were fleeing Syria’s third city Homs on Thursday, for fear that Islamist-led rebels would keep up their advance, a war monitor said. Homs lies just 40km (25 miles) south of Hama. Britain-based war monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported “the mass exodus of Alawites from Homs neighbourhoods, with tens of thousands heading towards the Syrian coast, fearing the rebel advance”. Khaled, who lives on the city’s outskirts told Agence France-Presse that “the road leading to \[coastal\] Tartus province was glowing ... due to the lights of hundreds of cars on their way out”. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told Guterres in a phone call that the conflict in Syria had reached “a new phase.” “The Syrian regime, at this stage, must urgently engage with its own people for a comprehensive political solution,” he said. The sudden losses appear to have unsettled Assad’s longtime backers in Moscow and Tehran, with [Russian forces consumed with their invasion of Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/04/moscow-claims-external-forces-seeking-to-escalate-violence-in-syria) and Iran concerned about its forces being targeted by Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory, which have increased in the last year. Naim Qassem, head of Iranian proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon that has fought in support of Assad, pledged to “stand by Syria to thwart the aggression against it.” The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters that Moscow was “closely monitoring”, events in Syria. “Depending on the assessment of the situation, we will be able to talk about the degree of assistance that is needed by the Syrian authorities to cope with the militants and eliminate this threat,” he said. Gregory Waters, an analyst of the Syrian army with the Middle East Institute, said a combination of low morale, low pay, corruption and dysfunction within the chain of command had contributed to the sudden rout of government forces from areas they had controlled for years. The Syrian army, he said, was “completely unprepared”, for the insurgent offensive. Amid reports of rising desertions from the Syrian army or fighters fleeing their positions, Assad issued a decree raising salaries for military personnel by 50% earlier this week. The Syrian president appeared to be seeking to muster a counter-offensive as the fighting drew closer to the capital. Military support from Iran and Russia has been limited when compared with previous iterations of the conflict in Syria, said Waters. “I think it’s hard to see a scenario where forces loyal to the regime in Damascus can regain momentum,” he said. “Even if the Russians and Iranian or Iranian-backed forces get more involved, they’re still limited by their own wars. It feels unlikely to reach the level of support we’ve seen previously.”

For once, use of the word “historic” is justified in describing the [toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/bashar-al-assad-reported-to-have-fled-syria-as-rebels-say-they-have-captured-damascus) after more than 50 years of brutal dictatorship, 13 years of on-off civil war and a world of suffering. The people of Syria, or most of them at least, are jubilant. They should enjoy the moment. They deserve it. It recalls the celebrations that accompanied the fall of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi. Yet such memories carry a warning and a threat. The warning is that joy can quickly turn to tears, and liberation to renewed repression, should the sudden collapse of hated but relatively stable authoritarian structures trigger an uncontainable descent into chaos. The threat is that the ensuing political and military vacuum will be contested by self-seeking actors interested not in justice and reconciliation, but power and retribution. In [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria), revenge is a dish served hot – and it’s back on the menu. The beginning of the campaign to oust Assad can be traced back to Daraa, in south-western Syria, the scene of a popular revolt in 2011. In that context, the successful advance of the militant group [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/07/syria-assad-damascus-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-insurgents) from its base in Idlib, in north-west Syria, to the capital, Damascus, is a fitting ending: a popular revolution by the people, for the people. Yet no one can yet tell what kind of Syrian future is envisaged by the HTS leader, [Abu Mohammed al-Jolani](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/06/who-is-abu-mohammed-al-jolani-leader-of-syrian-insurgents-hts), formerly an al-Qaida-linked jihadist and a wanted terrorist rebranded as national liberator. HTS has a record of human rights abuses and authoritarian rule in Idlib. Many Syrians reportedly flocked to the HTS banner as Jolani’s forces drove south. But other groups, with [different aims and interests](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/who-are-the-syrian-rebels-who-have-captured-damascus-explained-in-30-seconds), are moving quickly to exploit the crisis. They include a coalition of Kurdish-led nationalist militias in the north-east – the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces; Turkish-backed rebel factions collectively known as the Syrian National Army; and opposition groups in the south, united by hatred of Assad but perhaps not much else. Can the prewar Syrian mosaic – multi-ethnic, multi-religious, unusually tolerant and secular – be pieced back together? Is Jolani a man fit to lead a nation? Who else might prevent an anarchic territorial and political fracturing? No one has answers to these questions as yet. The regime’s prime minister, Mohammed Ghazi Jalali, announced that, unlike the wretched Assad, he is staying put and is ready to work with the insurgents. Brave words, and hopefully not his last. The challenges ahead are truly daunting. The civil war killed more than 300,000 people, although some estimates are double that figure. About 100,000 people are believed missing or forcibly disappeared since 2011. Where are they? A terrible accounting now begins. Half the population – about 12 million people – are displaced. Tens of thousands were detained without trial, tortured, abused. Their prisons are now emptying, sending a tide of angry, embittered, physically and psychologically scarred and vengeful people back into a devastated, already dysfunctional society. Millions of refugees, in [Turkey](https://www.theguardian.com/world/turkey) and Jordan, may head home en masse. Humanitarian and security calamities loom.  Syrian rebels broadcast first news bulletin on state television – video [Destructive foreign meddling](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/10/epic-failure-of-our-age-how-west-failed-syria) – central to the story of Syria since the war began – is another very real threat if things fall apart. Assad’s toppling represents a huge defeat for his main sponsors, Russia and Iran. Vladimir Putin moved into Syria in 2015 after the then US president, Barack Obama, backed off, prioritising counter-terrorism over support for pro-democracy forces. Russian air force bombers, along with Iranian Revolutionary Guards, kept Assad in power. Putin’s reward was military bases and increased leverage. All that’s imperilled now. For Iran, the Syrian collapse is but the latest in a string of reverses linked to Israel’s fightback after the 7 October 2023 Hamas terrorist attacks. Israel’s degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Tehran’s key ally in the so-called region-wide “axis of resistance”, denied Assad another important prop and rendered more vulnerable Iran’s position. Its embassy in Damascus is reportedly under attack. [Its diplomats have fled](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/world/middleeast/iran-syria-evacuation.html). Yet neither Russia nor Iran will give up. They will seek to shape the new order to their advantage, regardless of what’s best for Syrian people. Much the same may be said of Israel which, in its campaign against Hamas and other Iranian proxies, has repeatedly bombed what it says are Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Damascus and elsewhere in Syria. Tehran sees Israel’s hand in Assad’s downfall. Though perhaps not deliberately, Israel – following the law of unintended consequences – certainly helped undermine him. Now it worries about a [failed state on its border](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-12-08/ty-article/.premium/assads-fall-deals-a-major-blow-to-the-iranian-axis-but-poses-challenges-for-israel/00000193-a52e-d812-a3d3-afbe0b3e0000), who is in control of Assad’s chemical weapons, and a possibly renewed Islamist jihadist threat. Talking of own goals, that former footballer Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, president of Turkey, is well in the lead. He is thought to have given HTS the green light to launch its offensive after Assad rebuffed his attempts to create a border buffer zone inside Syria. Erdoğan is [obsessed with the Kurdish “threat”](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/07/assad-syria-turkey-iran-russia-diplomats-regime) from northern Syria and Iraq. He may now send more troops across the border. Yet did he really intend to smash the regime and trigger chaos throughout Syria? Maybe Erdoğan could explain how that serves Turkey’s interests. Unless the darker conspiracy theories are believed, the US, Britain and Europe have been just as surprised by events as Assad. That in itself is an alarming intelligence failure – but then again, the west’s record throughout the Syrian war has been one long, abject failure. It largely looked on as the most terrible suffering, mass displacement, war crimes, illegal use of chemical weapons and other horrors unfolded. Its occasional interventions – such as Donald Trump’s one-off 2017 bombing of regime military facilities after a chemical weapons attack in Khan Sheikhun in Idlib – were undertaken more to ease collective consciences than to effect real change. Now the west plays spectator again – although the threat posed by state failure is urgent. “[It’s not our fight](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/7/not-our-fight-president-elect-trump-distances-us-from-syrias-conflict),” says Trump smugly. No use looking, either, to Arab neighbours in the Gulf for help at this critical moment. Just over a year ago, Assad succeeded in [shattering his well-earned international pariah status](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/14/more-than-300000-syrian-civilians-died-any-attempt-to-rehabilitate-assad-is-utterly-shameful) at an Arab League summit in Riyadh. He was feted by, among others, the Saudi leader, Mohammed bin Salman. The not-so-diplomatic message was that Assad was back. Rehabilitated. The world could do business with him again. Wrong. Assad was a monster and he still is. Wherever he’s gone, he should not sleep easy. In the meantime, it falls to the Syrian people to save Syria. No one else will. * Simon Tisdall is the Observer’s foreign affairs commentator * _**Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a letter of up to 250 words to be considered for publication, email it to us at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])**_

 The swift downfall of Bashar al-Assad is reverberating in Syria and throughout the Middle East. Some changes are already apparent. Syrians who fled the country's vicious civil war years ago are lining up at border crossings to return home. The gates are swinging open at the country's notorious prisons, freeing thousands. Syrians are speaking freely after decades of repressive rule. Many more developments are still to come. Here's a preliminary look at what the upheaval could mean for a range of countries that have interests in Syria. ### United States The U.S. military carried out an unusually large airstrike Sunday on Islamic State bases in central Syria. The U.S. says this was done because a group of Islamic State fighters gathered to train, perhaps hoping to take advantage of the turmoil in Syria. The U.S. hit some 75 targets with a variety of aircraft, including massive B-52 bombers. U.S. forces have been battling the Islamic State in Syria for a decade and largedly defeated the group five years ago. About 900 U.S. troops remain to prevent a resurgence of the extremist organization. Most of the Americans are in remote northeastern Syria, with others in the far south. President Biden said Sunday the U.S. would maintain this military presence. He called Assad's ouster both a moment of risk and opportunity, adding that the U.S. would work with Syrians as they try to put together a new government. However, President-elect Trump is striking a different tone. He took to social media over the weekend and said Syria is not a U.S. problem, the U.S. should not get involved, and should just let events play out. But the U.S. is already involved. Those U.S. troops are not just fighting the Islamic State, they've also been protecting vulnerable Syrian civilians. Mouaz Moustafa, with the [Syrian Emergency Task Force](https://setf.ngo/), an American aid group, said the U.S. forces have supplied humanitarian assistance to displaced civilians in a barren area on Syria's southern border. "If you spoke to any of these people and you asked them about the United States military, and you asked them about the relationship between the two, those Syrians love the American military," Moustafa said.  Assad's downfall is the latest in a series of major setbacks for Tehran. Persian Iran has spent the past four decades developing Arab partners and proxies in the region, collectively known as the "axis of resistance." But in the past year, they've been tumbling like dominos. Iran was critical to Assad as he battled to stay in power during the country's civil war that erupted in 2011. Iran's Revolutionary Guards maintained a strong presence in Syria until pulling out last week, just ahead of rebel advances. Iran also used Syria as a bridge to ship weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. But now Assad is gone, Hezbollah has been greatly weakened by its war with Israel, and another Iranian proxy, Hamas in Gaza, has been devastated by its own war with Israel. "Losing Syria will deal a huge blow to Iran and its proxies in the region. And that's why I think right now the leaders in Tehran must be feeling quite anxious," said [Gonul Tol](https://www.mei.edu/profile/gonul-tol), with the Middle East Institute in Washington. "This is a moment where Iran's regional strategy has been dealt a huge blow, and at a time when the regime at home is being questioned by millions of Iranians."  Syria was Russia's main partner in the region for decades. When the Syrian rebels were threatening Assad's government in 2015, the Russian air force heavily bombed rebel areas and helped secure Assad's hold on power. Russia's President Vladimir Putin said this showed Russia's commitment to supporting its allies. But Russia is now preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and carried out only a few airstrikes as Assad's regime collapsed, demonstrating it was not able or willing to provide significant support. Russia places great value on the naval base and the air base it has on Syria's Mediterranean coast. They are Russia's only military bases in the Middle East, and now they are very much at risk. Russia's previous bombing campaigns inflicted heavy punishment on the rebels — and Syrian civilians — and they may not be inclined to let Russia keep that military presence. In addition, Russia has granted asylum to Assad and his family, which could be a point of contention with a new Syrian government. ### Israel Israel was always at odds with Assad, but considered him the devil they knew. Israel acknowledged that Assad kept the frontier with Israel largely calm, even when the wider region was aflame. Israel will now face a Syria that's highly unpredictable and where Islamist groups could assume a prominent role. For the past year, Israel has been fighting one such group to its south — Hamas in Gaza — and another to its north — Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel is wary of a similar group in Syria. Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war and later annexed the strategic territory. Israel's continued hold on the Golan Heights is certain to remain a major point of friction, regardless of who emerges in power in Damascus. ### Turkey Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has multiple aims in Syria and is well positioned to play a leading role in its future. For starters, he would like to shape a new government in Syria to his liking, said the Middle East Institute's Gonul Tol, author of [_Erdogan's War: A Strongman's Struggle at Home and in Syria._](https://academic.oup.com/book/46145) "Turkey can become the kingmaker," said Tol. "Turkey will stand to benefit both domestically and regionally from a new and, potentially, a very friendly government in Damascus." The Turkish leader would also like to see more than 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey head home. Some have already begun doing so. In addition, Turkish construction companies are well placed to rebuild Syria, ravaged by more than a decade of war. However, Erdogan's ambitions will depend on Syria restoring relative stability. Under Erdogan, the Turkish military has often operated in Syria against various Kurdish groups that Erdogan views as a potential threats to his rule. If Erdogan chooses to operate against Kurdish factions in Syria, that could undermine efforts to rebuild Syria.

The skies were quiet the other night in the northwestern town of Tel Rifaat, Syria, and relief was palpable among fighters and civilians who have lived for years under the constant threat of bombardment. A man named Ali, 48, guarded the northern entrance to town, sitting in a chair on the road next to a wood stove at an old police post. He gave only his first name for security reasons. But there was no danger of attack, he said, and no bombing. As night fell in the courtyard of a primary school, Syrian rebel fighters from the town — who helped recapture it from government-allied forces less than two weeks ago — knelt for the evening Muslim prayer. They were still elated by their victory, which ended their own lives of displacement, spent in tents, and those of many families from the town, who were already coming home. “The people of Tel Rifaat really wanted to return to their town,” said Firas Alito al-Ageid, 40, commander of the rebel unit. “This was the most important thing. They had the desire to return.” Image A man named Ali, with a cat, guarding a checkpoint on the main road leading into town. Rebel fighters at Friday Prayer in Tel Rifaat after retaking the town. “It is from God that we are back in our land,” one fighter said. The map highlights the city of Tel Rifaat, north of Aleppo, in northwestern Syria. It also locates the capital, Damascus, in the southwest.  By The New York Times Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F12%2F15%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Fsyria-rebel-stronghold-return.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F12%2F15%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Fsyria-rebel-stronghold-return.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F12%2F15%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Fsyria-rebel-stronghold-return.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2024%2F12%2F15%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Fsyria-rebel-stronghold-return.html).

Israel struck dozens of sites in [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria) overnight with airstrikes, despite the Syrian rebel leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, saying his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group was not interested in conflict with Israel. The latest airstrikes follow a statement by Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, that Israeli troops, who seized the Golan Heights buffer zone with Syria last week, would remain for the winter on Mount Hermon [in positions they occupied last week.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/11/golan-heights-israeli-troops-syria-assad) Katz’s office said in a statement that “due to what is happening in Syria, there is enormous security importance to our holding on to the peak”. Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a nom de guerre used by Ahmed al-Sharaa, told Syrian state media: “There are no excuses for any foreign intervention in Syria now after the Iranians have left. We are not in the process of engaging in a conflict with Israel.” Jolani said Israel was using false pretexts to justify its attacks on Syria, but that he was not interested in engaging in new conflicts as the country focused on rebuilding following the end of Bashar al-Assad’s reign. He added that “diplomatic solutions” were the only way to ensure stability stability and rather than “ill-considered military adventures”. [Syria map](https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2024/12/golanheights-zip/giv-45596Qb4KZHwvC0w) “Israeli arguments have become weak and no longer justify their recent violations. The Israelis have clearly crossed the lines of engagement in Syria, which poses a threat of unwarranted escalation in the region,” Jolani said. “Syria’s war-weary condition, after years of conflict and war, does not allow for new confrontations. The priority at this stage is reconstruction and stability, not being drawn into disputes that could lead to further destruction.” The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Israel fired 61 missiles at Syrian military sites in less than five hours on Saturday evening. Israeli air raids hit bases, heavy weapons, sites associated with the former Assad regime’s missile and chemical weapons programme, and destroyed Syria’s small naval force in port of Latakia. [](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/15/israel-launches-dozens-of-airstrikes-on-syria-despite-rebel-leader-peace-pledge#img-2) Syrian naval vessels destroyed by an Israeli airstrike last week in the port of Latakia. Photograph: Omar Albam/AP The continuing strikes have prompted mounting concern among diplomats and international officials concerned over what they fear may be an open-ended new occupation of Syrian territory. The UN has called on Israel to withdraw from the buffer zone, which sits between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The UN secretary-general, António Guterres, said he was “deeply concerned by the recent and extensive violations of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. France, Germany and Spain have also called on Israel to withdraw from the demilitarized zone. The UN has said Israel is in violation of a 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria that established the buffer zone. Israel has said the 1974 disengagement agreement “collapsed” with the fall of the Assad regime government. Responding to Jolani, the Israel Defence Forces chief of staff, Herzi Halevi, said, “We aren’t intervening in what is happening in Syria. We have no intention of administering Syria.” “There was an enemy country here. Its army collapsed. There is a threat that terror elements will come here, and we advanced so … extreme terror elements won’t settle close to the border with us. “We are unequivocally intervening only in what determines Israeli citizens’ security. The deployment along the entire border, from Mt Hermon to the meeting of the Israeli-Syrian-Jordanian border, is proper.” According to reports, among the sites hit over the over the weekend were military headquarters, Syrian army positions, radars, and arms caches and assets of the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center, which was responsible for developing advanced weapons. Israel also estimates it has destroyed much of the Syrian air force’s infrastructure and aircraft. The scale of the Israeli bombing campaign has surprised many western capitals who had believed that any Israeli strikes would be limited to chemical weapons and missiles sites rather than an effort aimed at the wholesale destruction of the Syria’s military, which has had 70% of its capabilities destroyed in hundreds of attacks. The latest Israeli air raids came as the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, wound up talks with Jordan, Turkey and Iraq with the aim of trying to shape the future of post-Assad Syria by forging consensus among regional partners and allies whose interests often diverge. “We know that what happens inside of Syria can have powerful consequences well beyond its borders, from mass displacement to terrorism,” he told reporters in Aqaba, Jordan. “And we know that we can’t underestimate the challenges of this moment.” Blinken also confirmed contacts between the Biden administration and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Blinken would not discuss details of the direct contacts with HTS but said it was important for the US to convey messages to the group about its conduct and how it intended to govern in a transition period.

United in duplicity, if nothing else, Russia, Iran, Turkey and the US – key external players in Syria’s long-running drama – all agreed. The country’s “sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity” [must be respected and maintained](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g7-leaders-statement-on-syria-12-december-2024), each separately declared last week after Bashar al-Assad’s sudden, welcome downfall. Even Israel, recklessly bombing Syria to blazes in the Jewish state’s [largest ever military operation](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdx921zreweo), denied it was interfering in the country’s internal affairs. Such cynicism is breathtaking. Like ravening wolves, supposed friends and neighbours tug at the still twitching corpse of the deposed regime. Unchecked, they could tear Syria apart, again. Importunate foreign powers also have this in common: they seemingly cannot abide the thought of Syria’s people independently charting their own future. Last week’s revolution – the overdue denouement of a popular revolt begun in 2011 – was ultimately achieved despite them and largely [without outside help](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/day-after-bashar-al-assad-russia-iran). The Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is not an ideal choice to lead the country. But [after 13 years of failing Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/10/epic-failure-of-our-age-how-west-failed-syria), the international community was not asked for its opinion. Self-serving outside interventions and, in the case of the west, craven cop-outs undercut or helped defeat pro-democracy forces. They lengthened the war. Russia sought regional influence and military bases. Iran’s militias built supply routes to proxies in Gaza and Lebanon. Turkey went gunning for Kurds. The US and the UK, burned by Iraq, focused on fighting Islamic State terror. Barack Obama jettisoned his 2009 “[new beginning](https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-Cairo-university-6-04-09)” with the Muslim world and, later, his red lines on chemical weapons. “Foreign powers, whose meddling did so much to propel Syria’s long civil war, must avoid repeating the mistake. Few capitals look enthusiastically at Islamists dominant in Damascus, but for now no option exists but to work with the new authorities,” [the International Crisis Group (ICG) says](https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/syria/priorities-after-assads-fall). Untroubled by an enfeebled Assad, Israel mostly confined itself to hitting Iran-linked forces during the civil war. Now, suddenly, it has discerned an existential threat. That at least is how it justifies illegal border land-grabs inside Syria, condemned as destabilising by the UN, and hundreds of [attacks on “strategic targets”](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/10/israel-strikes-hundreds-of-military-targets-in-syria). Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, says he’s worried a hostile HTS [may allow Iran back in](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/israel-iran-dangerous-new-normal-suzanne-maloney). “If \[HTS\] attacks us, we will respond forcefully… What happened to the previous regime will also happen to this regime,” he warned. No surprise that he’s not celebrating. As all the world knows, peace is not Netanyahu’s thing. > The idea, attractive to western governments, that Russia and Iran have been permanently repulsed is wishful thinking Yet by opportunistically attacking an undefended [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria) and seizing chunks of territory, he invites the outcome he most wants to avoid: the enmity of Assad’s successors and long-term Israel-Syria hostility. But wait! Maybe he doesn’t want to avoid it. As all the world knows, Netanyahu loves a war. The idea, attractive to western governments, that Russia and Iran have been permanently repulsed is wishful thinking. The Kremlin is certainly distracted by Ukraine. But precisely because that [war is assuming global dimensions](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/26/ukraine-russia-war-nato-biden-putin), Vladimir Putin will not surrender his strategic eastern Mediterranean air and naval bases if he can avoid it. Moscow is pursuing a deal with the transitional government, despite having bombed and gassed opposition fighters and civilians for almost 10 years. To steal a march, Putin may offer the recognition and material support that [western countries are withholding](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/assad-russia-military/). Iran’s Shi’ite leadership was stunned to an almost comical degree by Assad’s sudden toppling by Sunni rebels. But Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who never learns anything, is not abandoning his “[axis of resistance](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/11/iran-khamenei-says-al-assad-ouster-us-israel-plot-blames-neighbour)”. If it cannot do so openly, Tehran and its militias will act clandestinely inside and via Syria, including rearming Hezbollah. Khamenei tacitly blamed Turkey as well as the US and Israel for Assad’s fall, and it’s true [Ankara backed HTS’s offensive](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/10/syria-assad-turkey-erdogan-iran-geopolitics-middle-east-rivalry/). But President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s motives are deeply selfish. As the Islamists advanced south, Turkish proxies attacked US-backed Kurds along the northern border where Erdoğan, like Netanyahu, is building a buffer zone. He believes Kurds, not HTS, are the terrorists. Fighting continues amid renewed [mass civilian displacement](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/12/shamima-begum-and-65-other-is-linked-britons-detained-in-syria-face-uncertain-future) across north-east Syria. It’s plain Turkey wants a bigger chunk of post-Assad Syrian territory – even if that means sabotaging the Kurds’ policing of detention camps housing defeated IS caliphate terrorists. Last week, the US, while insisting that it, too, respects Syrian sovereignty, attacked [75 IS hideouts](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/9/us-announces-air-strikes-on-isil-targets-in-syria-sfter-al-assadss-fall) in the eastern desert. Donald Trump has threatened in the past to withdraw US forces from Syria. But Marco Rubio, his choice as secretary of state, argues they should stay to prevent a re-emerging terrorist threat. [skip past newsletter promotion](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/15/the-world-failed-to-save-syria-now-its-people-must-be-free-to-chart-their-own-path#EmailSignup-skip-link-14) Sign up to Observed Analysis and opinion on the week's news and culture brought to you by the best Observer writers **Privacy Notice:** Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our [Privacy Policy](https://www.theguardian.com/help/privacy-policy). We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google [Privacy Policy](https://policies.google.com/privacy) and [Terms of Service](https://policies.google.com/terms) apply. after newsletter promotion > Humanitarian aid should be offered to Syria unconditionally. Easing sanctions would help That is how European governments see it, too. Better blood in the sand in Syria than on the streets of Paris, London or New York. Trump says Syria is “not our fight”. He may yet decide otherwise. Out-of-control armed groups, score-settling, huge social dislocation, returning refugees, vast unmapped minefields and a wrecked economy pose daunting challenges across Syria. But so far the HTS leadership is making positive noises about a peaceful political transition, new security arrangements, safeguarding chemical weapons and respect for minorities. “Those governments with ties to HTS should urge it to bring as wide a range of voices as possible into government and to tread an inclusive line,” the ICG urged, referring to the Gulf states and [Turkey](https://www.theguardian.com/world/turkey), meeting in Jordan this weekend. Upholding human rights is more important than any quest for supremacy or vengeance. [Humanitarian aid](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/12/1158091) should be offered to Syria unconditionally. Easing sanctions would help. Yet how refreshing it would be if, just for once, a newly liberated people was trusted to chart its own path towards democracy, justice, reconciliation and reconstruction, free from outside interference. Let Syrians decide what they need, what kind of future they want. Until then, back off, stop meddling – and celebrate their victory. Simon Tisdall is the Observer’s Foreign Affairs Commentator

Good morning. Israel [bombed dozens of sites in Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/15/israel-launches-dozens-of-airstrikes-on-syria-despite-rebel-leader-peace-pledge) overnight, despite the Syrian rebel leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani aka [Ahmed al-Sharaa](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/10/syria-new-leader-two-identities-ahmed-al-sharaa-abu-mohammed-al-jolani), saying his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group was not interested in conflict with Israel. Jolani’s comments came as Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, announced on Sunday that he had approved a plan to expand settlement-building in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The latest airstrikes follow a statement by the country’s defence minister, Israel Katz, that Israeli troops, who seized the Golan Heights buffer zone with [Syria](https://www.theguardian.com/world/syria) last week, would remain for the winter. The UN, France, Germany and Spain have called on Israel to withdraw from the buffer zone, which sits between Syria and the Israeli-occupied area. Meanwhile, [at least 12 Palestinians were killed, including children, in an Israeli airstrike](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/16/middle-east-crisis-israeli-government-golan-heights-occupation-syria-gaza-latest-updates?page=with:block-675fd4148f082fbec06c22a6#block-675fd4148f082fbec06c22a6) on a shelter for the displaced in Gaza’s Khan Younis school turned shelter for displaced Palestinians on Sunday, the Hamas-run civil defence agency said.  Drone footage shows destroyed vessels at northern Syrian port of Latakia – video * **What is Israel bombing in Syria?** Israeli air raids have hit bases, heavy weapons, sites associated with the former Assad regime’s missile and chemical weapons programme, and destroyed Syria’s small naval force in port of Latakia. The scale of the Israeli bombing campaign has surprised many western capitals. * **How did Netanyahu justify further settlements?** He justified expanding Israeli settlements in the occupied Golan Heights “in light of the war and the new front facing Syria” and a desire to double the Israeli population in the area. “We will continue to hold on to it, cause it to blossom and settle in it,” he said. **Hundreds** **believed to be dead as Cyclone Chido devastates French** **islands of Mayotte** ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Hundreds believed to be dead as Cyclone Chido devastates French islands of Mayotte – video At least several hundred people are feared to have been killed after the [worst cyclone in almost a century](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/15/hundreds-feared-dead-as-cyclone-chido-devastates-french-island-of-mayotte) ripped through the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte on Saturday, leaving health services in ruins. Rescuers have been dispatched to the islands, which lie between the coast of Mozambique and Madagascar, but their efforts are likely to be hindered by damage to airports and electricity distribution in an area where clean drinking water is subject to chronic shortages. The archipelago’s prefect, François-Xavier Bieuville, said the confirmed toll of 11 dead was likely to soar over the coming days. “I think there will certainly be several hundreds, maybe we will reach a thousand, even several thousands.” * **How powerful was the storm?** Winds of at least 140mph uprooted trees, tore houses apart and pounded the impoverished archipelago’s already weak infrastructure. * **What complicates relief efforts?** French authorities say about 100,000 people live in Mayotte clandestinely, which some healthcare workers believe makes them reluctant to seek assistance – due to fears it would lead to their removal. * **How deadly have previous cyclones been in the region?** Cyclone Idai killed more than 1,300 people in Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe in 2019. Cyclone Freddy left more than 1,000 dead across several countries last year. **Lindsey Graham contradicts Trump’s assertion that January 6 investigators ‘should go to jail’** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/16/first-thing-israel-strikes-syria-netanyahu-approves-settlement-expansion#img-2) Lindsey Graham rejected Donald Trump’s view that officials who investigated the deadly attack on the US Capitol in 2021 should be imprisoned. Photograph: J Scott Applewhite/AP Senator Lindsey Graham on Sunday [rejected Donald Trump’s view](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/15/trump-lindsey-graham-january-6-investigators) that officials who investigated the deadly attack on the Capitol in 2021 should be imprisoned. On NBC’s Meet the Press, Graham was asked whether he agreed with Trump’s assertion that investigators should go to jail. “No,” said South Carolina’s senior senator. Meanwhile, independent leftwing senator Bernie Sanders said on Sunday that Joe Biden should “very seriously consider” issuing pre-emptive pardons. * **How will Trump approach the January 6 convicted?** More than 1,250 people have pleaded guilty or otherwise been convicted in the January 6 attack. At least 645 people have been sentenced to serve some time in prison, ranging from a few days to 22 years. Trump says he’ll pardon them on “day one”. **In other news …** ------------------- [](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/16/first-thing-israel-strikes-syria-netanyahu-approves-settlement-expansion#img-3) About 2 million people gathered in Yeouido, Seoul, South Korea, on 14 December to call for the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol. Photograph: Chris Jung/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock * **South Korea’s constitutional court has begun reviewing the impeachment of President Yoon Suk****\-yeol,** over his attempt to [impose martial law](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/16/south-korea-han-dong-hoon-resignation-impeachment-yoon-suk-yeol) on 3 December. * **Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has been discharged from hospital**, after spending six days recovering from emergency [surgery](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/15/brazil-president-lula-leaves-hospital-after-brain-surgery) to drain a hematoma in his brain. * **Israel has announced it will close its embassy in Ireland,** citing Dublin’s decision last week to support a petition at the international court of justice [accusing the country of genocide](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/15/israel-to-close-dublin-embassy-after-ireland-supports-icj-genocide-petition). **Stat of the day: Russian tanker sinks in Black Sea spilling 4,300 tons of oil** ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Two Russian tankers sink in Black Sea spilling 4,300 tonnes of oil – video A Russian tanker carrying about 4,300 tons of oil products has sunk in the Black Sea amid stormy conditions, while a second has run aground. Commentators pointed out that the oil products, if spilled into the Black Sea, would cause serious [ecological damage](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/15/two-russian-tankers-sink-in-black-sea-spilling-oil) to a marine environment already badly affected by war. [](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/16/first-thing-israel-strikes-syria-netanyahu-approves-settlement-expansion#img-4) Axelle Ponsonnet, Southern Transept, The Removal of the Forest of Scaffolding, February 2023, pencil on paper Illustration: Axelle Ponsonnet After disaster struck Notre Dame in 2019, Axelle Ponsonnet [began to draw](https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2024/dec/16/axelle-ponsonnet-carnet-de-chantier-ballade-dans-notre-dame) parts of the cathedral exposed by the fire, some not seen for centuries. “At one point, the entire internal volume of the cathedral was filled with scaffolding,” Ponsonnet said. “When they started taking the scaffolding down, it was like everything could breathe again.” **Climate check: Anxious scientists brace for Trump’s climate denialism** ------------------------------------------------------------------------- [](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/16/first-thing-israel-strikes-syria-netanyahu-approves-settlement-expansion#img-5) Donald Trump visits the Double Eagle Energy oil rig in Midland, Texas in 2020. Photograph: Evan Vucci/AP Trump dominated conversations at the annual American Geophysical Union meeting this year. The prospect of Trump slashing budgets and mass-firing federal staff has given America’s scientific community a sort of [collective anxiety attack](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/15/scientists-climate-denial-trump). “We all feel like we have a target on our backs,” one said. **Last Thing: A white T-shirt for $202? Welcome to capitalism’s era of ‘bespoke basics’** ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/16/first-thing-israel-strikes-syria-netanyahu-approves-settlement-expansion#img-6) Who in their right mind, writes Morwenna Ferrier, would pay $200 for something they may spill coffee down? Photograph: Linda Nylind/The Guardian It’s made from mid-weight Supima brushed cotton, with subtle stitching and slim elbow-length sleeves. It’s comfy and fits perfectly. It’s also … a white T-shirt. And who in their right mind, [writes](https://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2024/dec/16/bespoke-basics-would-you-pay-160-for-this-t-shirt) Morwenna Ferrier, would pay $202 for something they may spill coffee down? **Sign up** ----------- Sign up for the US morning briefing First Thing is delivered to thousands of inboxes every weekday. If you’re not already signed up, [subscribe now](https://www.theguardian.com/info/2018/sep/17/guardian-us-morning-briefing-sign-up-to-stay-informed). **Get in touch** ---------------- If you have any questions or comments about any of our newsletters please email [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])

The mother of the missing American journalist Austin Tice has told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel in a letter that her family has “credible information” that Mr. Tice may be held in a prison outside the Syrian capital, Damascus, and urged the Israelis to pause military strikes in the area to allow rescuers to search the site. Mr. Tice’s mother, Debra Tice, said in the letter, dated Dec. 14 and addressed to Mr. Netanyahu, that the prison was under a Syrian military museum in the mountainous Mount Qasioun area and had a tunnel that was connected to a neighborhood and a government palace. “We are aware that your military has an active campaign in the area, preventing rescuers from approaching and accessing the prison facility,” Ms. Tice wrote in the letter, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times. “We have no way of knowing if the prisoners there have food and water. We urgently request you pause strikes on this area and deploy Israeli assets to search for Austin Tice and other prisoners. Time is of the essence.” Gal Hirsch, the Israeli government’s lead envoy for hostage affairs, confirmed he had received the letter, and he said that he was coordinating on a daily basis with U.S. officials, including Roger D. Carstens, the U.S. government’s special presidential envoy for hostage affairs. “We will do everything possible in assisting the United States of America to bring the hostages and missing persons back home,” Mr. Hirsch said. U.S. officials said on Monday that they did not have specific information about Mr. Tice’s whereabouts. The Israeli military has been bombing weapons depots and air defenses in Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based organization that tracks the conflict in Syria. Israel has said it wants to keep military equipment away from extremists. Mr. Tice was abducted in 2012 outside Damascus as the country descended into civil war. The United States has said it believes he was being held by the government of Bashar al-Assad. [The Assad regime had long maintained](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/16/world/middleeast/austin-tice-journalist-syria.html) that it was not holding Mr. Tice and had no information about him. Mr. Tice’s family and the United States government have [stepped up efforts](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/us/politics/austin-tice-search-syria.html?searchResultPosition=1) to locate him since Dec. 8, when rebel groups seized Damascus after overrunning several other major cities, and Mr. al-Assad fled to Russia.

Standing at the gates of the Khmeimim airbase, a fighter from the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) eyed a pink vape being puffed on by a Russian soldier. Catching his gaze, the soldier offered it to him. The bearded fighter took a drag and shrugged, giving a thumbs up to the Russian soldier, who let him keep it. Just over a week ago, Russian jets taking off from Khmeimim airbase were heading to northern Syria to drop bombs on rebel groups. This week, Russians are negotiating with the same factions, now in control of the country after their [12-day lightning offensive that toppled the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/14/the-army-just-ran-away-how-bashar-al-assad-lost-his-brutal-grip-on-syria). [](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/16/this-is-not-a-peaceful-country-russian-military-forms-fragile-truce-with-syrian-rebels-it-used-to-bomb#img-2) A Syrian fighter guards the entrance of the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia, Syria. Photograph: Ümit Bektaş/Reuters “We don’t feel unsafe, we are hoping to make friendly relations with the new government as soon as it becomes a legitimate government,” said a representative of the Russian military, who allowed the Guardian rare access to the Khmeimim airbase on Sunday. The representative said communications with HTS started a week ago to [coordinate military affairs between Russian forces in Syria and the country’s new leaders.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/09/moscow-reaches-out-to-new-syrian-leadership-in-move-to-secure-bases) “Neither side is making provocations and things have been fine,” the Russian military representative said, as he gestured to boxes of humanitarian aid and Russian ministry of defence-branded backpacks, which they said were a gift from Russia to the Syrian people.  Guardian reporter watches Russian forces at Khmeimim airbase in Syria – video HTS fighters guarded the gates of the airbase as Russian Mig fighter jets took off. “We used to be scared whenever we would hear the sound of a Russian jet – now it’s become normal,” Abu Khaled, a 26-year-old HTS fighter guarding the airbase said. Outside, Russian soldiers still milled about the town of Khmeimim, shopping at stores whose signs were written in Cyrillic. Russian forces first entered Syria in 2015 when Assad requested their military assistance against opposition forces, which he had been fighting since Syria’s 2011 revolution. Now their presence in Syria has been called into question as the opposition take the reins of power. [Map](https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2024/12/russian_bases_in_syria_and_control/giv-4559YgbqEbvgKHeN/) The EU foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas, said on Monday that Russia and Iran “should not have a place” in Syria, and said the bloc would raise the issue of Russian military bases with the country’s new leadership. HTS and Russia are at the “first step” of negotiations over if and how Russia will maintain its military bases in post-Assad Syria, an HTS official familiar with the talks told the Guardian. Both sides described the atmosphere of the negotiations as positive. [Russia wants to maintain its control over Tartous port, its only port in the Mediterranean sea and the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia, a key logistics point for its Africa operations.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/03/seizure-of-aleppo-threatens-moscows-foothold-in-syria-and-the-wider-region) [ Assad denies planning to flee Syria before evacuation by Moscow ](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/16/un-envoy-calls-for-inclusive-transition-syria-rebel-leader) Though the HTS official acknowledged Russia’s role in [“bombing innocent civilians”](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/02/russia-committed-war-crimes-in-syria-finds-un-report) in Syria since 2015, it seemed the rebel group was taking a pragmatic approach towards its relations with foreign powers. The HTS official said there would be “no red lines” in negotiations with the Russians, which would be based on “strategic interests, not ideology”. Moscow and HTS have both made their opening moves: Moscow offered humanitarian aid to Syria, which is mired in an economic and humanitarian crisis. This was refused, as HTS felt it had several foreign donors already beating on its door. In his first public comments since he was forced from power, Assad said on Monday that his first stop after fleeing Damascus was the Khmeimim airbase, where he claimed to have overseen combat operations between fleeing to Moscow. The HTS official said the new Syrian government would seek the extradition of Assad, or ask him to be turned over to the international criminal court. They added that they were not optimistic that Russia would grant either request. The primary aim of HTS appears to be establishing good economic and political relations with Russia and other international powers, which the HTS official said would confer legitimacy on the new rebel government. The official cited the hasty pullout of US forces from Afghanistan in 2021 as a lesson on what the group wanted to avoid with Russia. [](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/16/this-is-not-a-peaceful-country-russian-military-forms-fragile-truce-with-syrian-rebels-it-used-to-bomb#img-3) A Russian soldier stands on top of a water tower at Khmeimim airbase. Photograph: Ümit Bektaş/Reuters To that end, HTS has provided security for Russian forces over the last few days as they moved vehicles and personnel from the T4 airbase in Homs, central Syria, to Khmeimim airbase and Tartous port. Columns of Russian armoured personnel carriers, tanks and pickup trucks with the Russian flag waving and a large “Z” painted on the sides have filled Syria’s highways for the past two days, escorted by HTS fighters. [Aerial view of Khmeimim airbase](https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2024/12/syria_bases_before_and_after/giv-4559ANfrSkssqTsn/) The Russian military representative confirmed that the T4 airbase in Homs had been completely emptied out of personnel and equipment by Saturday, in coordination with HTS. The representative added that troops were not withdrawing from Syria but just repositioning, while they waited for Russia’s presidency to make a decision about what to do next. Living conditions in the besieged T4 base had become dire in the last week, with refuse building up and food supplies growing low, according to the HTS official – allegations on which the Russian representative did not comment. Khmeimim airbase and Tartous port are now the only active Russian bases in Syria – a far cry from the vast military footprint Moscow maintained in the country under Assad. The question of Tartous appeared easier to resolve than the airbase, as the HTS official said the group was open to allowing the Russians to maintain their control over the port, citing international law as a complication for cancelling the 49-year lease of the naval facility – even if it was signed with the now deposed Assad regime. Whether the Syrian people would accept a continued Russian presence in the country after years of Russian jets bombing people in rebel-held territory was another question. “This is not a peaceful country, go look at Idlib and the liberated areas, they are all destroyed,” Abo Khaled said, gesturing at the Russian jets taking off from Khmeimim airbase. HTS, on its part, seems willing to turn the page on the bloody past of the Syrian civil war and focus on pulling Syria out of its miserable humanitarian state. “We are forced to repair relations, the country is dead, people are very poor. People are trying hard to stop the bloodshed, they would like to build a new life and move forward,” the HTS official said. [](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/16/this-is-not-a-peaceful-country-russian-military-forms-fragile-truce-with-syrian-rebels-it-used-to-bomb#img-4) Smoke rises from the site of a Syrian army weapons depot hit overnight by an Israeli bombardment. Photograph: Bakr Alkasem/AFP/Getty Images Ziad Taweel, the head of the Latakia international airport that borders the Russian airbase, said HTS had instructed him to go back to work and get the civilian airport back online, but he had only been granted approval by the Russians to return on Sunday. The last civilian flight from the airport was almost two weeks ago and the exterior of the airport was littered with abandoned army vehicles and boxes of weaponry, though the interior was left untouched. As Taweel inspected the airport, escorted by balaclava-wearing Russian commandos, an HTS fighter and a soldier joked. The HTS fighter, gazing at Russian Mrap military vehicles and planes, made sure to take some selfies with the Russian military officials, before walking off the base towards his colleagues.

BBC Geir Pedersen said the international community was ready to help and support Syria's new leadership It is vital that Syria's new leadership keeps its promises to respect the rights of all the country's diverse religious and ethnic groups, according to UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen. Mr Pedersen, speaking to the BBC in Damascus, said Syrians were experiencing "a lot of hope and a lot of fear... at the same time". He called for all parties, inside and outside Syria, to do all they could to create stability in the country. Bashar al-Assad's regime [was overthrown less than two weeks ago](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99x0l1d432o) by a rebel coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, known as HTS, a Sunni Islamist group that claims to have disavowed its jihadist extremist past since it split from al-Qaeda in 2016. HTS is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN, the US, the EU, the UK and others. Symbolically, its leader has dropped his wartime pseudonym of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani and [reverted to his real name of Ahmed al-Sharaa](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0q0w1g8zqvo). Sunni Muslims are a majority in Syria, which has a strong secular tradition. Sharaa insists HTS is a religious nationalist movement prepared to tolerate other groups. Mr Pedersen said Sharaa has said "many positive things". But some Syrians, he said, did not believe the HTS leader, who until 2016 had a long history as a jihadist extremist. "I must be honest. I'm hearing from many Syrians that they're asking questions whether this will actually be implemented. They've got their doubts." That, he said, was not surprising, given the speed of change in Syria. "If the transition is to succeed, this needs to be a process that is co-operative." "\[Sharaa\] needs to work with the different armed factions that went in together with him. He needs to work with a broader group of former opposition. He needs to make sure that he's working with a broad group of civil society women. And as we all agree with the broadest spectrum possible of Syrian society." Mr Pedersen, who has been the UN special envoy since 2018, said the international community was ready to help and support Syria's new leadership. He emphasised that hopes of lifting sanctions on Syria and taking HTS off the terrorist list depended on its behaviour. He hoped to give it the benefit of the doubt for three months - the time HTS has said its interim government will rule before a more long-term arrangement. "I think there is an understanding that for Syria really to be successful, we need to see a delisting, and we need to see sanctions lifted. But I think also it's very important that it's understood that this will not just happen because everyone wants positive things." "Member states are following very carefully what will be happening on the ground, but I do believe that if what has been said in public is actually being implemented in practice, yes, then I think we can see the delisting and the end of sanctions." SANA Geir Pedersen held talks with HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa earlier this week As for Syria's neighbours, Mr Pedersen said that Israel's actions since the fall of Assad had been "highly irresponsible". Since the 1967 Middle East war, Israel has occupied and later annexed the area of southern Syria known as the Golan Heights. Most other states, other than the US, consider the Golan to be occupied land. Israel's current bombing campaign against Syrian military facilities and its occupation of more Syrian land in the Golan Heights demilitarised buffer zone and neighbouring areas were, Mr Pedersen said, "a danger to the future of Syria, and these activities need to stop immediately". "There is no reason that Israel should occupy new Syrian territory. The Golan is already occupied. They don't need new land to be occupied. So what we need to see is that also Israel acts in a manner that don't destabilise this very, very fragile transitional process," he added. Mr Pedersen is also concerned about the complex web of power in northern Syria. Turkey has a well-established relationship with HTS. It has troops in the north-west, as well as a militia known as the Syrian National Army (SNA), made up of rebel factions that it backs. Since Assad was overthrown, the SNA has attacked the other force in Syria's north, a Kurdish-led militia alliance called the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which is supported by the US. Mr Pedersen said it was Turkey's interests to follow certain key principles, along with other foreign powers. "What is it that we all need to see in Syria now? We need to see stability. We need to see that there are not new population groups that are displaced. We need to see that people are not running away from Syria as refugees. We need to see that refugees are returning, that... internally displaced can be returning to their homes." After 54 years under the rule of two authoritarian Assad presidents, Syria is fragmented, with towns and villages heavily damaged by almost 14 years of war and a population traumatised by war and the deadly cruelty of the regime. Mr Pedersen said it was vital for HTS to start a process that will bring justice to all the families of more than 100,000 Syrians who disappeared after detention by the regime since 2011. Most are presumed dead. "If this process is not moving in the right direction, there is a huge danger that this anger can erupt in a manner that is in no one's interest." Syrians, Mr Pedersen said, wanted to own the process of rebuilding their country. That might be difficult given the turbulence across the Middle East and propensity of Syria's neighbours and other big powers to interfere. Time is short. If HTS keeps its promises, "within the next few weeks and months there is hope that Syria can have a bright future", he said. He warned that if that doesn't happen, "there is also a danger of new strife and even civil war." "But we need to bet that the future for Syria can now be fixed. And that we can start the process of healing."

The liberation of Syria was long hoped for, but unexpected. Over the past weeks, Syrians have experienced the full range of human emotions, with the exception of boredom. On the first two Assad-free Fridays, millions of [celebrants swelled the streets](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/13/damascus-streets-erupt-in-celebration-as-syrians-mark-end-of-assad-dynasty) to chant and sing and speak formerly forbidden truths. There was a huge presence of women, who had been less visible during the years of war. Relatives are meeting again and assuaging their pain as hundreds of thousands return from the camps of exile. At the same time, millions are having to accept at last that their loved ones have been tortured to death. It now appears that most of the [130,000 lost](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/12/joy-gives-way-to-grief-as-syria-buries-its-dead) in Bashar al-Assad’s prisons (a bare minimum figure) are dead. Dozens of mass graves have already been discovered. Working hard to crawl out from under the corpse of one of the worst torture states in history, Syrians are now looking to the future. A key factor in the final fall of the regime was the remarkable discipline and social intelligence shown by the [rebel coalition](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/who-are-the-syrian-rebels-who-have-captured-damascus-explained-in-30-seconds) led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). When it became clear that neither Christians nor unveiled women were being harassed in liberated Aleppo, that there was no looting, and that Shia towns which had hosted foreign militias were not being subjected to revenge attacks, then tens of thousands of Assad soldiers felt safe enough to defect or desert. But some still harbour deep suspicions of the HTS leader, [Ahmed al-Sharaa](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/10/syria-new-leader-two-identities-ahmed-al-sharaa-abu-mohammed-al-jolani), previously known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. He has enormous charisma, which may ease the path to a new dictatorship, but, so far, the signs are more hopeful than that. Sharaa is popular precisely for his non-dictatorial qualities. Indeed, the first motivator for the moderation of HTS since the revolution began in 2011 has been its need to be accepted by the complex, multicultural and assertive Syrian society. Sharaa wouldn’t be where he is today if he hadn’t followed a pragmatic and accommodating path, and he knows it. “Someone who rigidly clings to certain ideas and principles without flexibility,” [he told CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/audio/podcasts/one-thing/episodes/9b45bc34-179e-11ef-aba1-ff5668189fff), “cannot effectively lead societies or navigate complex conflicts.” Thus far at least, Sharaa appears intelligent enough to understand that neither he nor his political faction can rule Syria on their own. HTS played a key role in the liberation, but it wasn’t the only player. Rebels from Daraa, the Homs countryside and eastern Ghouta, and the Druze militias in Sweida all liberated themselves. The HTS-led coalition has assured all sectarian and ethnic communities that their rights will be respected, and issued directives that women’s dress choices should not be interfered with. (In Idlib, HTS stopped fielding a religious police years ago.) All rebel groups will [soon dissolve](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/17/ahmed-al-sharaa-syria-hts-rebel-group-leader-factions-disbanded) in favour of a professional national army. Mohammad al-Bashir has been [appointed the prime minister](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/10/syrian-rebels-name-new-pm-as-outside-powers-move-to-shore-up-interests) of a transitional government until March 2025. Bashir was previously head of the “salvation government” in Idlib, which was HTS-aligned, but civilian, technocratic and fairly successful in its provision of services. So far so good, but there is a need for greater inclusiveness, particularly in the process of drawing up a new constitution. Inclusion here means not just symbolic participation or quotas, but the kind of practical involvement that will ensure unity and stability by giving key constituencies the sense that they hold a stake in the new order. Among these constituencies are [Alawites](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/15/celebrating-the-unknown-syrian-alawites-fear-for-future-under-rebel-rule) – from which Assad and most of the old regime emerged – and secularists. Both are currently feeling bruised, though cautiously optimistic. The opposition’s coalition – which has been active for more than a decade and covers a range of factions, from the Muslim Brotherhood through nationalists to liberals – contains illustrious individuals who should be brought in to the new government, but it is disabled by its lack of governance experience and relevance, and its proximity to foreign powers, [especially Turkey](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/17/ankara-is-getting-what-it-wants-how-erdogans-balancing-act-in-syria-paid-off). The biggest challenges at present, though, are not domestic. Syria has been liberated from Russia and Iran, but other occupations remain and even expand. North-east Syria is racked by its own complexities and other people’s wars. Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) are clashing. Turkish-funded militias notorious for their criminality have [abused and murdered civilians](https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2019/10/syria-damning-evidence-of-war-crimes-and-other-violations-by-turkish-forces-and-their-allies/). So has the US-backed [Syrian Democratic Forces](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-66711352) (SDF), a coalition dominated by the PKK (not “the Kurds”, as commentators insist on calling it; Syrian Kurds are as politically diverse as anyone else). The new government will have to negotiate the diminishment of these opposing forces. As I write, the SDF is seeking to avoid a Turkish [invasion of Kobani](https://www.democracynow.org/2024/12/17/headlines/us_officials_warn_turkey_is_preparing_invasion_of_syrian_kurdish_autonomous_region) by declaring the city a demilitarised zone. It is hoped that the PKK core will withdraw to its base in the Qandil mountains of Iraq, that the Kurdish parties it banned will be able to operate again, and that Kurds will flourish in a post-Arabist Syria. Already, Sharaa has assured them this will be the case. An even more serious challenge is the enmity of the west. The EU and the US are [not lifting sanctions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/17/israel-gaza-war-syria-lebanon-hamas-hezbollah-assad-middle-east-latest?page=with:block-676158f68f08a3c6949f56a9#block-676158f68f08a3c6949f56a9) on Syria, though the regime has gone, which makes them unprecedented “pre-emptive” sanctions. Worse, Israel, armed and excused by the US, UK and Germany, has invaded still more Syrian territory (after its theft of the Golan Heights) and is bombing [intelligence](https://www.barrons.com/news/syria-war-monitor-israeli-strikes-set-ablaze-damascus-security-buildings-3882f04b) as well as [military targets](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/10/israel-strikes-hundreds-of-military-targets-in-syria), presumably to destroy evidence of collaboration with Assad. This unprovoked assault, an attempt to render the country defenceless, is a shameful and stupid way to welcome newly independent Syria. I predict Syria will eventually manage to defend itself. It has already seen off one set of regional and international imperialists. The future will certainly be influenced by hostile foreign powers, but the Syrian people will play the leading role in the drama. That’s because on 8 December, eternity came to an end, the statues of the tyrants fell, and history resumed. * Robin Yassin-Kassab is the co-author of Burning Country: Syrians in Revolution and War and the English editor of the [Isis Prisons Museum](https://www.isisprisons.museum/en) * _**Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our [letters](https://www.theguardian.com/letters) section, please [click here](mailto:[email protected]?body=Please%20include%20your%20name,%20full%20postal%20address%20and%20phone%20number%20underneath%20your%20letter.%20Letters%20are%20usually%20published%20with%20the%20author’s%20name%20and%20city/town/village.%20The%20rest%20of%20the%20information%20is%20for%20verification%20only%20and%20to%20contact%20you%20if%20your%20letter%20is%20used.).**_

Iran’s top ranking general in Syria has contradicted the official line taken by Iran’s leaders on the sudden downfall of their ally Bashar al-Assad, saying in a remarkably candid speech last week that Iran had suffered a major defeat but would still try to operate in the country. An audio recording of the speech, given last week by Brig. Gen. Behrouz Esbati at a mosque in Tehran, surfaced publicly on Monday in Iranian media, and was a stark contrast to the remarks of Iran’s president, foreign minister and other top leaders. They have for weeks downplayed the magnitude of Iran’s strategic loss in Syria last month, when rebels swept Mr. al-Assad out of power, and said Iran would respect any political outcome decided by Syria’s people. “I don’t consider losing Syria something to be proud of,” said General Esbati according to the audio recording of his speech, which [Abdi Media,](https://abdimedia.net/podcast/listen-uncensored-file-revelations-and-above-controversial-remarks-general-aftabati-one) a Geneva-based news site focused on Iran, published on Monday. “We were defeated, and defeated very badly, we took a very big blow and it’s been very difficult.” General Esbati revealed that Iran’s relations with Mr. al-Assad had been strained for months leading to his ouster, saying that the Syrian leader had denied multiple requests for Iranian-backed militias to open a front against Israel from Syria, in the aftermath of the Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7, 2023. Iran had presented Mr. al-Assad with comprehensive military plans on how it could use Iran’s military resources in Syria to attack Israel, he said. The general also accused Russia, considered a top ally, of misleading Iran by telling it that Russian jets were bombing Syrian rebels when they were actually dropping bombs on open fields. He also said that in the past year, as Israel struck Iranian targets in Syria, Russia had “turned off radars,” in effect facilitating these attacks. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and [log into](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2025%2F01%2F08%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Firan-general-syria-defeat.html&asset=opttrunc) your Times account, or [subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2025%2F01%2F08%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Firan-general-syria-defeat.html) for all of The Times. Thank you for your patience while we verify access. Already a subscriber? [Log in](https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?response_type=cookie&client_id=vi&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2025%2F01%2F08%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Firan-general-syria-defeat.html&asset=opttrunc). Want all of The Times? [Subscribe](https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=89WYR&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2025%2F01%2F08%2Fworld%2Fmiddleeast%2Firan-general-syria-defeat.html).